Kiwi dollar slipping through channel resistance

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
As stated earlier, on weekly charts even though it has tested supports at neckline of double top at 0.6447 that acts as an intermediary supports within the channel it fails to hold on channel resistance and dropping quite often.

Even though price curve attempting jump above but remained well below 21DMA, despite the breach of channel line resistance once in last week, it has sharply pushed back southwards.

"Shooting star and Gravestone doji" patterns occur on rallies at 0.6722 and 0.6828 respectively to evidence further weakness, it is also observed that 21DMA attempts to crosses over 7DMA, which is an alarm to the short term bulls, so we could foresee more bearish pressure in the weeks to come.

On daily terms, stochastic has been flashing overbought signals as there is clear %D crossover seen at 80s. Contemplating on long term downtrend, RSI on daily shows divergence to the previous momentary rallies, while MACD also remains bearish trajectory.

The risk bias to antipodean currencies remains firmly to the downside in 2016.

Well, the advice is that long-term investors don't get bull trapped in this pair as it is clearly dipping within a southward channel that has moved way below 21DMA on weekly as well. We are fairly positioned for bearish targets in 2016 and forecast for NZD/USD at 0.59 by Q1 of 2016 and 0.61 by Q4 of 2016.

For intraday speculators it seems healthy bearish momentum but abrupt bullish swings should be tolerated for 25-35 pips (i.e. max upto 0.6643-53), that is where the retest of channel resistance to take place.

Trading tips: With spot FX at 0.6630, on speculation grounds it is good to go buy binary puts for targets of 50-60 pips with the strict stop loss at channel resistance 0.6653 levels.


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