NZDUSD Watching PA in the coming days/weeks

We are in a higher time frame downtrend (monthly), so expecting more lows in the coming weeks. However, price is in a large ascending channel, and in a smaller ascending channel within that, both of which haven't broken yet. It looks like today confirmed a range as price bounced off of the .6800 level and closed above the previous candle that touched the .6800 (Ranging between .70538 & .6800). If this is a range, price should come back up towards the .70538 level. Price might play around in this area and create some higher lows as it goes up in the ascending channel and squeeze for a break higher. If this happens, I'm looking to the .72267 level to get in for a long term short as this would be the level price broke out of initially to start the corrective structure we have here. This would also be the top of the ascending channel which is a corrective structure to lead into another impulsive move down. If price doesn't make it to that high level, and breaks lower out of the range, then I'm looking at .67583 to get in short. On the monthly time frame, we've seen a series of bull candles with higher lows, and that area is the low of the most recent candle. A touch off the 20EMA and a move past that level is a signal that the retracement is done and more moves down are coming. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days/weeks. I'm currently long with a stop just below the blue horizontal line, and targeting .72267.

Comment:

Closed out my long position manually. Price action on the 1H is indicating early signs of breaking this support level. Will look to get short at the break of .6800

Comment:

Short position triggered.