FullTimeTrader
Short

NZDUSD-A wonderful rare setup but nothing is perfect in trading

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1192 20 18
A few day ago i posted a long term EW analysis expecting a rebound in the 0.6409 and 0.6495 area
NZDUSD-long term analysis with short term opportunities


Apart from EW i found a very powerful rare confluence of others indicators/trading systems

We have a bollinger duplication on monthly chart on a key level 0.65000
snapshot


On weekly chart we see another bollinger band duplication and stochastics historical oversold
snapshot


Here on D1 chart we see:
- harmonics AB=CD pattern
- RSI extremely oversold with bullish divergence
- four lows in a row (the maximun level of divergence)
- more than 20 candles ride on bollinger bands , when this happens prices tends to meet the middle or opposite bollinger band
- strong psycholevel 0.6500

A very rare and reliable confluence but nothing is perfect in trading. We have RBNZ rate news on WEDNESDAY, so its not a good time to enter a trade.

But on the other hand i do not want to miss a strong rebound at this level. I saw the same setup before and i would rely on the price action instead of fundamentals.

Im already short on AUDNZD             , so i will open a long(s) position(s) with less risk (0.5%). Im not playing the lottery here because i have tested this setup succesfuly many times before. Of cours nothing is 100% sure in trading.

Best regards.

*****************DISCLAMER********************************************************************
This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Always do your own analysis before opening a trade.
Managing is 60% of a trade, anytime I may decide not to open, close or even stop and reverse a trade depending on price action.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome.
We all are here to learn sharing ideas, have fun and improve our performance.




Great call.. took 75 pips profit.. Thanks!
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Short at spot (0.6630) stop above 0.6675 for 0.6430. It seems a good risk-reward trade.
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Hi guys, I am waiting something like that. The news for this week could accelerate the price down but I think the pullback is possible. The trend market is down at the moment. If the price go up until 0.6850 - 0.6900 I prefer sell in these area
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yes, its a good strategy to sell and continue the downtrend, this idea is for a counter trend trade before the news
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good one mate, i m expecting it to range in that green rectangle for a while, if you look at that last down move in blue line and the current down move,they are both of similar size.
snapshot
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Good eyes! i didnt see the lower trendline, yes we could have similar consolidation. I also look at price history for similar price action, as you already know every pair has its own "personality"
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not yet although landed at pitchfork, longerm channel around 0.63
snapshot
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look4edge look4edge
.6250
just fell out from channel
snapshot
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Interesting, never used pitchfork before, thanks for sharing.
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Agreed, pending downside.
The correlations confirm or make us discard wave counts or setups.
Gold isn't done falling, GBPNZD isn't done rising, gbpusd is about to rally, eurusd too, audnzd probably as well.
All this points to continued NZDUSD weakness in the big picture.
It might form a wave C impulse, but the move will be limited.
Definitely tradeable though!
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