FullTimeTrader
Short

NZDUSD-A wonderful rare setup but nothing is perfect in trading

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1191 20 18
A few day ago i posted a long term EW analysis expecting a rebound in the 0.6409 and 0.6495 area
NZDUSD-long term analysis with short term opportunities


Apart from EW i found a very powerful rare confluence of others indicators/trading systems

We have a bollinger duplication on monthly chart on a key level 0.65000
snapshot


On weekly chart we see another bollinger band duplication and stochastics historical oversold
snapshot


Here on D1 chart we see:
- harmonics AB=CD pattern
- RSI extremely oversold with bullish divergence
- four lows in a row (the maximun level of divergence)
- more than 20 candles ride on bollinger bands , when this happens prices tends to meet the middle or opposite bollinger band
- strong psycholevel 0.6500

A very rare and reliable confluence but nothing is perfect in trading. We have RBNZ rate news on WEDNESDAY, so its not a good time to enter a trade.

But on the other hand i do not want to miss a strong rebound at this level. I saw the same setup before and i would rely on the price action instead of fundamentals.

Im already short on AUDNZD             , so i will open a long(s) position(s) with less risk (0.5%). Im not playing the lottery here because i have tested this setup succesfuly many times before. Of cours nothing is 100% sure in trading.

Best regards.

*****************DISCLAMER********************************************************************
This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Always do your own analysis before opening a trade.
Managing is 60% of a trade, anytime I may decide not to open, close or even stop and reverse a trade depending on price action.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome.
We all are here to learn sharing ideas, have fun and improve our performance.




I think it's a B rally after a strong impulsive A.

snapshot
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
Not sure on the count, but don't think it's bottomed there yet.
Worth a shot for sure.
Reply
FullTimeTrader IvanLabrie
a year ago
if its not a bottom could be a needed pullback, but everything is pointing the price is ready to make a bullish move
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP FullTimeTrader
a year ago
My motto regarding EW is 'trade all C/3 waves'.
We won't know what it is until it's very near to completion in general, and in this case, we can't know unless we see a 5th wave after the impending 3/C.
Check this one out:
AUDNZD: Weekly setup over strong daily trend
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Pipstradamus1
a year ago
So right this second is a possible reversal moment? Im going to have to reserach whats intended in that rate report, and idk if it was a typo but rate looks like its coming wed hmmm... so i guess im going to play a buy stop just above todays high and see how it plays out...thanks btw ur a smart ass man haha u earned yourself a follow !!
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FullTimeTrader Pipstradamus1
a year ago
yes, a good strategy would be to place a but stop order before the news
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RBNZ rate decision is on Wednesday, not Friday AFAIR.
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FullTimeTrader Jeff_Wheelwright
a year ago
thanks, yes, just mispelling
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Marvin FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Great analysis. Are you expecting the RBNZ to leave the rate unchanged? From what I've heard there's a decent chance of a cut so a sell stop would also be a good strategy. The problem of course is where to put your stop as the likliehood of price whipsawing will be high.
Reply
FullTimeTrader Marvin
a year ago
I not a fundamental trader, but off course i listen the news. This chart is crying a correction is needed. A good strategy would be to place Sell Stops or Buy Stops. Im not a fan of this strategy but here its based on a solid analysis.
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look4edge
a year ago
not yet although landed at pitchfork, longerm channel around 0.63
snapshot
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look4edge look4edge
a year ago
.6250
just fell out from channel
snapshot
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FullTimeTrader look4edge
a year ago
Interesting, never used pitchfork before, thanks for sharing.
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IvanLabrie TOP look4edge
a year ago
Agreed, pending downside.
The correlations confirm or make us discard wave counts or setups.
Gold isn't done falling, GBPNZD isn't done rising, gbpusd is about to rally, eurusd too, audnzd probably as well.
All this points to continued NZDUSD weakness in the big picture.
It might form a wave C impulse, but the move will be limited.
Definitely tradeable though!
Reply
GcNaif MOD
a year ago
good one mate, i m expecting it to range in that green rectangle for a while, if you look at that last down move in blue line and the current down move,they are both of similar size.
snapshot
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FullTimeTrader GcNaif
a year ago
Good eyes! i didnt see the lower trendline, yes we could have similar consolidation. I also look at price history for similar price action, as you already know every pair has its own "personality"
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el_trader
a year ago
Hi guys, I am waiting something like that. The news for this week could accelerate the price down but I think the pullback is possible. The trend market is down at the moment. If the price go up until 0.6850 - 0.6900 I prefer sell in these area
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FullTimeTrader el_trader
a year ago
yes, its a good strategy to sell and continue the downtrend, this idea is for a counter trend trade before the news
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Pip-Master
a year ago
Short at spot (0.6630) stop above 0.6675 for 0.6430. It seems a good risk-reward trade.
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discman24
a year ago
Great call.. took 75 pips profit.. Thanks!
Reply
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