FxWirePro
Short

Would NZD/USD breach of channel resistance at 0.6825 sustain?

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
184 2 5
We think, despite the breach of trend line resistance at 0.6825, pair still shows further weakness.

NZDUSD             showing strength but question is - Would the breach of channel resistance at 0.6825 sustain? We believe puzzling swings are likely to retest 0.6825 as supports.

Well, long-term investors don't get bull trapped in this pair, volumes are mammoth on every price dips (see grey shaded areas).

This would mean that ongoing bear run is mightier than short-term rallies.

We could foresee the next strong levels of support only at 0.6825, 0.6541.

On EOD             charts, this has struggled and failed to hold onto 0.6883 levels that have acted as crucial resistance in the recent past as well (see circled areas).

One can initiate fresh shorts at current levels keeping 0.6885 as strict stop loss for the target of 55 to 60 pips.

Retrospectively, shooting star candle pattern is occurred at 0.6737 levels on daily charts at peaks which has evidenced the pair to slip below 10DMA and the trend on this chart has started showing short term downtrend continuation as the RSI (14) has shown downward convergence with every price dips.

RSI on daily chart began converging downwards above overbought zones, while %D line crossover on slow stochastic curve is seen above overbought zone again.

Kiwi dollar after long lasting losing streak that has begun from mid April, now the attempt of recovery does not seem persist.

The risk bias to antipodean currencies remains firmly to the downside in 2016.

Hence, we are bearish on NZD for 2016 and forecast NZD/USD             at 0.59 by Q1 of 2016 and 0.61 by Q4 of 2016.

Trading tips: We look ahead for further dips as the long term downtrend to resume back again. The trade idea would be good to buy ATM binary puts on rallies for targets of 55-60 pips.
crncy PRO
11 months ago
Short is the way to go. Great work!
Reply
Emilio1
11 months ago
good work
Reply
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