NZDUSD - Long Range Play

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
278 4 4
The obvious risks are the Head and Shoulders and the recent double top , but I think there is a good RR available by playing the range. A tight stop of 40 pips and a target at the top of the range for 200 pips.

Fundamentally I see USD strength across the board only in its initial phase (check DXY's second elliott wave) and NZD overbought for a very long time. The head & schoulders on NZDUSD, triple top on NZDJPY, triangle on AUDNZD and so forth is an early indicator of a theme shift. However, I am appreciative of your suggestion of the range play. To avoid the risk of uncertainty why not just put entry buy order at 0.82460 and entry sales order at 0.81600.
machos kjaerschjunk
Yes, I agree with your analysis. The Kiwi has definitely been overbought and Wheeler is very explicit about it being too high. Reflecting on this trade a day later, it seems there is a lot of risk associated with it.

The reason I did not set up the buy/sell orders as you suggested is because of false breakouts. Looking at today's PA, it would have hit the sell order but now PA has retraced all the way back, but your suggestion is definitely something to consider for future plays.

Thanks for your thoughts!
Definitely, the bounce came later than I had anticipated. I will re-evaluate if it breaks the major resistance at 0.82100 and ultimately I have S/L at 0.82460.

Thanks for the analysis
Howdy all! Pardon the intrusion, I'm kinda new to this Forex,stuff. I was reading y'alls posts & was wondering, candlestick charts are candlecharts, right(whether Forex/Stock/Comm)??? Well, I was wondering about the head & shoulders & double tops we just saw, not to mention the bearish engulfing (3) candles in those tops? Doesn't this signal a turn??? Also, looking @ MACD(Daily Charts). I welcome all help/suggestions.
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