Overall I agree with you, But not sure what your expectation is on loner term. ie just retracement or new bullish cycle to challenge the all time high. I could be wrong but on Weekly and using semi-log scale this is what I see. Possible significant top is is and we will be correcting a larger cycle to we could only expect a retracement.
Also on shorter term I think the 5 wave cycle is incomplete based on what I see here is that chart
. Would be interested in what you think. Thanks for sharing though.