Oh Pelaton. What a ride you had :) This stock started last year (2020) at around $27 a share, rising up to $170 just 12 months later. It's time for a correction. And, although I'm not a fundamental expert/trader, I believe there's a case to be made here. First, let's look at the charts.
Technical Basis - Daily Chart
Let's start with the Daily chart. There are quite a few things happening right now in this chart. Let's start with the moving averages. The first red arrow below points to the crossing of the averages. With the 200 period on top and the 20 period on bottom, we are in a perfect situation to enter a short trade.
Next, we have the diagonal trend line that'd been respected for a few months now. We're right at that level, with the Stochastics up in overbought territory. Great second sign of a solid short entry.
Going on, we see a bit of a support/resistance zone around $100 (my line is at 99.88). Price has respected this a bit, and we're back at that level. On the short side, this is a bit of a break and retest entry, and I am expecting this to fail downward.
Finally, my favorite part is that the horizontal support/resistance line is currently crossing the trend line. This is a great place to enter a trade. When two of my lines cross on a chart, its a confluence of lines, and likely to be a point where price bounces.
Technical Confirmation - 4H Chart
For furher insight, I pulled up the 4H chart. Now, this isn't a perfect entry or setup by any means, but it's decent confirmation. Price has tested the upper Bollinger Band, and Stochastics are in overbought territory. Again, a great place to enter as the current candle is showing a reversal pattern together with the previous two.
Fundamental Thoughts
As mentioned, I don't look deeply at balance sheets or company politics. Fundamental investing is not my game, and I don't pretend to be good at it. However, there is one thing that comes to mind. The pandemic is getting better in many countries, and people are beginning to go outside. Gyms are re-opening, people can run/bike outside, and although Pelaton built a huge customer base, I don't think purchases and revenue will rise at such rapid rates. Just my two cents there.
My Trade
So, there are many ways to get into this trade to make money. You may not be able to short the stock, and that's okay. I often don't short stocks myself. Instead, I'm going with a Vertical Put Spread option on this one. I am doing a 18 Jun 21 spread at 97 and 94 strike prices. The premium I paid came out to $90/contract, with maximum gain of $220 (not including commissions). My breakeven point at expiration is just about $76 for PTON.
Technical Basis - Daily Chart
Let's start with the Daily chart. There are quite a few things happening right now in this chart. Let's start with the moving averages. The first red arrow below points to the crossing of the averages. With the 200 period on top and the 20 period on bottom, we are in a perfect situation to enter a short trade.
Next, we have the diagonal trend line that'd been respected for a few months now. We're right at that level, with the Stochastics up in overbought territory. Great second sign of a solid short entry.
Going on, we see a bit of a support/resistance zone around $100 (my line is at 99.88). Price has respected this a bit, and we're back at that level. On the short side, this is a bit of a break and retest entry, and I am expecting this to fail downward.
Finally, my favorite part is that the horizontal support/resistance line is currently crossing the trend line. This is a great place to enter a trade. When two of my lines cross on a chart, its a confluence of lines, and likely to be a point where price bounces.
Technical Confirmation - 4H Chart
For furher insight, I pulled up the 4H chart. Now, this isn't a perfect entry or setup by any means, but it's decent confirmation. Price has tested the upper Bollinger Band, and Stochastics are in overbought territory. Again, a great place to enter as the current candle is showing a reversal pattern together with the previous two.
Fundamental Thoughts
As mentioned, I don't look deeply at balance sheets or company politics. Fundamental investing is not my game, and I don't pretend to be good at it. However, there is one thing that comes to mind. The pandemic is getting better in many countries, and people are beginning to go outside. Gyms are re-opening, people can run/bike outside, and although Pelaton built a huge customer base, I don't think purchases and revenue will rise at such rapid rates. Just my two cents there.
My Trade
So, there are many ways to get into this trade to make money. You may not be able to short the stock, and that's okay. I often don't short stocks myself. Instead, I'm going with a Vertical Put Spread option on this one. I am doing a 18 Jun 21 spread at 97 and 94 strike prices. The premium I paid came out to $90/contract, with maximum gain of $220 (not including commissions). My breakeven point at expiration is just about $76 for PTON.