michaelgoldin

Rotate out of technology

NASDAQ:QQQ   POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST
45 3 1
Very difficult to get the timing right, but I believe we are nearing the top of the epic NASDAQ-100 run. Prices could consolidate or levitate upwards for weeks/months

Price is currently stretched >20% above the long term consensus of value (200WMA)
Price is forming a bearish ascending wedge
RSI is showing negative divergence
MACD is rolling over

Price is struggling at 1990's all time highs
QQQ             had trouble rallying amid the powerful post-election rally. Trumps proposed policies support spending in physical infrastructure vs. information technology

There appears to be a rotation to value over growth names. Valuations are quite lofty for NASDAQ-100 names. The PE ratio of the QQQ             is 22 (vs. ca             19 for SPY             , 16 for EFA             and 14 for EEM             )

To initiate a short position, price must confirm and break the bearish wedge on impulsive, high-volume selling.
RSI must break 50
MACD-Histogram must tick lower
michaelgoldin
18 days ago
snapshot

Watch the QQQ/SPY ratio
Reply
michaelgoldin
18 days ago
snapshot


The ratio has broke down impulsively. The bounce appears to be rolling over
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michaelgoldin
16 days ago
snapshot


Ratio breaking down
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