i can only see it from action/reaction point view. from mid May to now i see a huge energy coil which should lead a explosive and sustainable move either to the up side or the down side. Now we see the coil is revolved, to the up side. how would you interpret the past move late 2011 to mid Mar 2012 using EW. IMO, we can fit EW into any finished move, it is rather subjective in interpreting it in current context. BTW, there is never "no way" in the market, all things are possible. for a trader, any analysis is useful provided that it helps a trader to frame trade and know conditions that things go wrong, its all about probability.
I disagree-from an Elliott standpoint-forget what the long term count is, its clear that the decline from the peak in early April is a clear 5, and the rally thus far, regardless of how much of a retracement it represents-which is unusual, is a 3-overlapping, in no way "impulsive" to the upside. And bonds have reversed big time to the downside (yields, that is have rallied, prices have reversed hard down.)