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RIG - May consolidate/channel

NYSE:RIG   Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)
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RIG exploded past its anticipated resistance at 12, settling at 12.71. In fact its price and volume have been increasing massively each day for a week now.

I'm hesitantly expecting the price of this stock to increase further, but the timeframe is unclear. It's quite possible that we have a bit of a gap on monday, and it opens high. I do not expect the stock to exceed resistance at 14.45. The market is less risk averse than it has been - but large question marks remain for oil companies and a price surge above the levels seen over the summer would be unexpected at this point.

The price has move so high so fast that soon, possibly as soon as first thing monday (especially if the stock opens high) I would expect to see more and more investors taking profits and the price to drop back down.

The selloff should take the stock at least to its support at 12, and I expect it to trade and consolidate between 12 and 14.45 until more definitive news pushes it one way or the other. If the stock does perform as I expect and oscillates between those two levels for a few days buying at 12 could be a good position to take for a few days, taking profits ASAP with a mind to the ease with which the price could plummet. The same is true of a short position taken at 14.

Again, both strategies are predicated upon the stock establishing resistance at 14 and support at 12 and trading between them. Its entirely possible RIG explodes up above 14 again in a single trading day because of huge short covering, or that investors take their profit now in such a massive selloff that we drop below 12.

I trade risk-averse, and will not be jumping into this stock either way as things stand right now - especially since traders have had all weekend to mull things over.
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