cryptoyoda
Short

Raytheon (RTN) - short US intervention in Syrian

BATS:RTN   RAYTHEON CO
97 3 0
Technicals: Raytheon             traded in a $7 channel (purple) between June 2012 and a breakout in late April this year. It never convincingly crossed the ML of the ensuing fork , and dropped out, gapping across the first warning line earlier this month. The collapse can be analysed as two ABCDs (green & grey ABCs visible on right), whose entry points (at 25% of the projected retracements) near-coincide with the third lower warning line around $75.

Aggressive trade: short $75.25 (entry point of smaller ABCD) stop: $76.26, targets:
1 $72.24 RRR             3.1
2 $70.33 RRR             5.1
3 $68.90 RRR             6.6
(based on the two ABCDs and the last obvious horizontal resistance, respectively.)

Less aggressive: wait until price clears the larger ABCD's 25% entry (74.78) or the smaller ABCD's CD midpoint (74.23).

DISCLOSURE: I'm just making all this stuff up. Feedback welcome. Good luck! :)
Fundamental background: RTN manufactures Tomahawk missiles; it was the wardrums leading to Syria that led the stock out of its earlier trading range (specifically claims in April that the regime had used chemical weapons, crossing a clearly stated 'red line'). The first waterfall out of the fork dates to around the time the US started to back down (possibly to the UK vote against participating in a joint task force?).
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RTN was recently implicated in study* linking many media advocates of intervention in Syria with major defence contractors. This is quite likely to surface in mainstream media**. It presents reputational risks to defence contractors and Raytheon in particular.
(Via its links with Stephen Hadley, "former national security adviser to George W. Bush, made a series of high-profile media appearances. Hadley argued strenuously for military intervention in appearances on CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg TV, and authored a Washington Post op-ed headlined "To stop Iran, Obama must enforce red lines with Assad."")

*http://public-accountability.org/2013/10/conflicts-of-interest-in-the-syria-debate/
** see NYT story on similar issues from 2008:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/us/20generals.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Reply
Marked closed loss, but in fact low was 75.33, never triggering entry. Now a pretty attractive looking long, after resistance at lower WL, and signs of resistance on a sliding parallel ~$0.12 above it. :)
snapshot

Target $78.65 based on ABCD, or $79ish based on WL above. Partial profits at the green arrows.
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