mikebiz
Long

Soybeans: A case for biggest trade since 2007

CBOT:S1!   SOYBEAN FUTURES
I believe soybeans             are staging to have the largest run up since 2007

Daily

snapshot

Since Sept, indicators (slow stoch , TSI             , and RSI ) have been diverging with price. Additionally, the 9 and 20 period EMA on price have crossed and turned up as well as crossing over the 50P EMA. In Oct             , the ADX dropped below 0 signaling price consolidation. On 10/17, price broke through resistance pulling ADX and +DMI up over 20.

However, how does this daily action fit within the context of the weekly and monthly charts? The daily chart is bullish but is it fighting bearish weekly and/or monthly charts or running with them.

Weekly

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Coinciding with this bullish daily chart is a bullish weekly chart. Going back to Sept 2015, the ADX dropped below 20 signaling price consolidation and remained there thru Mar 2016. Once price broke above resistance, it carried up 2 1/2 months. During this time:
  • RSI hit 80 (which is the overbought range for a bull trend)
  • TSI hits 100
  • ADX hits 45 (I consider 40 to be overbought/sold on weekly chart)

Since this high, price has spent remainder of 2016 correcting.

Now, the weekly indicators have begun to turn positive
  • Slow stoch has crossed and moved
  • TSI has moved up and is sitting at 0. A break above 0 is bullish
  • RSI was held at 40 which is bottom of range for a bull trend and has begun to move up
  • ADX is still above 20 with +DMI crossing up over -DMI signaling a possible change in dominance

Monthly

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The monthly chart is bullish too. Again, the Mar 2016 move pushed indicators positive with a strong change in dominance on ADX

  • Slow stoch hit 80 and has pulled back during correction
  • TSI moved over 50 and has now pulled back toward 0
  • RSI pulled back from 60 to 40 and now 9P EMA and 45P WMA have turned up. I believe this next run up will take monthly RSI to 80
  • ADX looks like another change in dominance may happen

A green bar close above red resistance line will signal continuation of up trend

Targets: 121x, 152x, and 179x

4H and 1H charts,

snapshot

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I will be using the 4H and 1H charts to trigger an entry long for soybeans             .
For now, the key to watch is the 4H ADX. Recently, it hit 50 and held to the 27th of Oct             . Now that it has started down, the -DMI has moved up. The other indicators have diverged with price and are moving down too.

I'm looking for this corrective action to continue setting up the resistance line on the daily chart .

Should these actions happen, I look for an entry when 4H indicators/price turn up and the daily resistance line has a green bar above it.
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