jangseohee

SEA, can these tankers lead crude oil back to profitability?

AMEX:SEA   None
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I don't think i need to explain in detail why Shipping is such a risky business compare to other form.

Let us start by looking at SEA - Guggenheim Shipping ETFs. This ETFs tracks the performance of the major holdings such as TNK , FRO, TNP , NAT & etc.

As usual, i will start my analysis by using JUST trend channel and comparison.
With the recent spate of oil carnage, the tumble of oil price not only will affect energy stocks, it also directly impacted the profit margin of these Crude Tankers.

From here i wish to compare the price movement of 4 more tankers before the chart become too messy.
And i want to link this directly to the expectation of crude price in the near future.

1. Frontline Tanker (FRO) has broken out convincingly from the first shorter term downtrend line, moving towards the resistance from the mid-term downtrend line extended from mid-2012, further breaking of this resistance would mean confirmation for rise in crude price

2. Nordic American Tanker ( NAT ) has also broken out of the short-term downtrend resistance and now SITTING on the mid-term downtrend resistance from mid-2012

3. Teekay Tanker ( TNK ) has broken the previous high (horizontal resistance in Feb 2014, if might come back to retest it, if there is a support the next one is to break that horizontal resistance in mid-2012

4. Tsakos Energy Tanker is currently consolidating in rectangle channel.

Please enlighten me if i get my analysis right.

If the crude oil price is still plunging, why does the stock price of these tankers already broken one resistance if not consolidating? Dont tell me the "smart & prof" money already know these and have accumulating massively while there are panic in crude oil . Could it mean that crude price is nearing to bottoming and good time to average long? How soon can i do that!!!

Since SEA is slowly to response, i believe by the time SEA found strong support at channel bottom, these tanker stocks would have broken their common mid-2012 resistance!

Of course i will not rule out the possibility of SEA broke below that support.

P.S. i am open to different perspective/point of view
Comment:

Comments


to small of a window to do a larger channel , but so far it is a lower high
+1 Reply
G13Man G13Man
but i touched 2 point on the lower channel
+1 Reply
insufficient data points to draw channel, still subjected to change over the long haul
thanks for your contribution mate @G13Man
Reply
G13Man jangseohee
on a fundamental level ,
1 ] those tankers might just be big floating holding tanks
2 ] different refineries refine different grades of oil ! So what is available locally might not be able to be refined locally !
3 ] those tankers rented for #1 , might tie up resources and raise the price for #1 & #2
Reply
i think i general,
commodities price low means shipping follows = low demand
Reply
If then else levels:



Short term, looks like it will retrace or gap down open.
Now, if this break above the red line holds, it might rebound and go up again.
If it doesn't it'll fall down to the next dashed line.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
One thing is certain: it will correct now.
Reply
channel broke down
big W could be in store
Reply
layers of resistance in Baltic Dry Index
http://invst.ly/2l60
Reply
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