raaneru

Watching for return to Fib support after earnings drop

NASDAQ:SFIX   STITCH FIX INC
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4
245 11
Dropping hard on earnings , but it seems to be mid-range between Fib levels and below the previous July resistance area . I'm watching for a retest of 30, at which point I'll buy in for a rebound and continuation of the uptrend since June. It's a volatile stock, but this feels like the best move for risk-reward.
Trade active: My first lot triggered at 30.50, but it's dropping faster than I wanted. playing out more like a swing trade. Will purchase another lot at 30.
Comment: New to this so I'm realizing the long position art should have been overlayed on today, but I'll be tracking in the comments regardless.
Trade closed: stop reached: Stopped out at 29.50 - Support held for most of the day, but sellers seem to have gained control. Looking to see how it closes today and opens tomorrow to come up with a more conservative approach.
Comment: S&P closing under 2,875 (Jan Highs) and looking to close under the 200DMA on the week is pretty bearish. I won't be going long in any equities unless there's an unexpected bullish reversal in the near term.

I'll be waiting for the dust to settle before looking at any short strategies. SFIX could be a candidate down the road under 22.6
Big questions above the overall market, but 24 is one of the strongest support levels there is (respected fib line from April and May) so possibly worth a low risk swing play if we close near it, but just above it. I don't risk too much on swing trades, but with tight stops they can offer good risk/reward.
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Might want to look at the financials before dumping any more money into this pig. Projected P/E ratio of 100x (at current price) for FY19, with 20% growth Y/Y. Growth isn't fast enough to justify that kind of P/E ratio. Was an easy short on earnings, I'm out now.

I'm kinda expecting this to head and shoulder, so back up to $30 - $34 before heading down to $18 before the next earnings. If you go long, don't get greedy.
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raaneru hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, I'm with you there. I wouldn't want to be holding this leading up to earnings. Just looking to ride the mindless momentum up.
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Another test as we retrace to the 27.50 fib level - I'm still playing this conservative waiting to see how it closes. The risk/reward isn't quite there for me at these levels.
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raaneru raaneru
@raaneru, beautiful bounce off 27.50 level - I played a bit as a gamble (nothing I would tie to this idea) that I'll close out before resistance test at 30. If it clears that, original play is back in effect.
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raaneru raaneru
@raaneru, stopped out on this little play. might roll the dice again at the retracement to 25.50 - there's a bottom somewhere here!
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Do you suggest buying at this current price?
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raaneru axelsalas11
@axelsalas11, Normally I like to see if it closes above support and how strong the volume push is near the end of day, but I put some in already at $30.50 to try to play the swing. Either way, I'm out if it closes below $29.50 (I don't have a lot on so I'm confident I could sell in after-hours).
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@raaneru, I'm in at $30.52, gonna get out if it closes below $29.50. Not gonna risk a whole lot of my money.
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