The pattern is likely an A-B-C zig-zag pattern. If it is, Fib analysis of the EW pattern indicates there will be two equal waves at 15.09, slightly below the 78.6 retracement of wave A or 1 up. It is interesting to note that price has already exceeded the 78.6% retracement level and reversed.
Channel analysis is consistent with the above analysis indicating the pair has retested a 0-2 channel line in what is likely a wave 4 pattern. At this point, price has fallen away and is likely in the final move down.
I also relay on multiframe momentum analysis using the RSI to determine the position of price in a market. RSI usually reaches anextreme in wave iii of 3. Afterwards, a double divergence occurs.
On the monthly chart, RSI put in an extreme low at 37.13. Subsequently, RSI moved up and has moved down to 37.25 where it appears to be reversing. A new low in price will create double divergence and indicate theprobability of a trend change higher. The weekly chart confirms wave 3 has completed and indicates the likelyhood that wave iii of 5 has completed. Here price has made a new low; below the extreme of wave 3 and RSI has not. RSI has turned downindicating a new bearish move is probably underway. On the daily chart, RSI confirms both the weekly and monthly. However, the daily RSI indicates a reversal lower may be underway. This indication is in the form of a potential H&S topping pattern, if completed will clearly indicate wave 5 is underway.
In looking at the 240 minute chart, price has confirmed the H&S pattern and RSI is sloping down.