Silver - Still 30% downside to reach no brainer buy

COMEX:SI1!   Silver Futures
420 8 7
Since April 2011, Silver             went down in wave of 50% followed by periods of 1-year consolidation.

The final target may be 30% lower.

Not guaranteed it goes to target but bottom fishers have to factor 10.80ish as potential target.

I am not sure if the Swiss referendum on gold             will have an impact on Gold             but the trading Friday is not telling a good story
plotted xag/spx spread chart, it seems spread has lot of downside potential, just broken and retested important level 0.8 level, but regarding violent rebound 2 days ago from transition zone, slv could be resilient to fall further (for the moment)
so, the other option is only spx to rise further

YaKa look4edge
SPX could go to 2200 in Jul15.
But this is not going to happen in a straight line be it because SPX has an amplitude of 80pts a month and that could be done in 1.5 months from here but cannot for speed limits reasons.
There is probably a correction on SPX coming soon.
Just adding to your hypothesis I have done some calculations myself and have worked out that Silver could be at the 10.8 area by mid April 15 going on the current trend and a 50% draw-down from July's high. To take advantage of this scenario you could buy the May options Bear Put Spread for a debit of say 400 dollars. B 11.750/ S 10.750. The silver options market is thin especially at options expiry dates well into the future and down this far in the strikes. If filled and it hits 10.8ish area then this is the time to get out regardless of date.
YaKa glennjoy1
Yes - good strategy if you believe down.
Otherwise, you wait and if target reached, you surely make money on the way up if sized to hold.
+1 Reply
This is a catch 22 if it goes to 10.8 or there about you would say yes I was right now lets gamble and go long. But if you were also right for a risk of 400 bucks and then turned say the 3000-4000 profit into a bullish trade you could take several Bull Call Spreads (with a lot of confidence I must ad) with the profit you made (and take out your 400.00 initial outlay if you wish) for a risk free multi position bull run (and even maybe go for a 2 strike spread). Wouldn't that be nice say the 12-14 Bull spread x 2 positions. If it hits 14 you would make who knows 6K a position. And yes this is just an idea. Silver has the ability to make you cheer, cry and scream all in the same day. I think the Romans invented this saying for Silver-Caveat emptor
+1 Reply
YaKa glennjoy1
You may very well be right. Go for it. You know your max loss. It s good be it just for that and you have 5months to be right, Perfect.
Interesting, I think your projection is valid.
Will follow Silver closely, might be a nice buy for the longer term once target's reached.
If you told me a week or 2 ago that Silver was going to near 10 I would have said not likely but looking how It fell Friday and not to mention Crude's demise the 10 area is feasible. Hell it's getting to the stage that German Silver is nearly worth as mush as the real deal.
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