Long Term Bearish SPX

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
405 10 4
I posted this Chart 2 months ago. With all the Socio-economic disruption going on I think that all wee need is a catalyst to set the ball rolling downward. If I view this as a true Chartist and purely based on what the charts say then this also would indicate a reversal.
ORIGINAL COMMENT: This is a monthly chart of SPX             . I believe the market is topping out and will correct prior to reaching 2000. I see shorting possibilities coming with a retracement to a previous support area (FIB .764 ) which could become a support area with a further projected drop to .618 (mimicking two previous rertacements (Harmonics). I'm new and learning. This is my 1st go at this, all comments welcome (I want to learn).
This market is no way close to top. Only FIB's dont mean much technically, companies are beating top and bottom fundamentally.
+1 Reply
I dont agree with traderswin, this pattern is clearer on the Dow, it is a large flat or t5 pattern, dont short yet - the nasdaq and russell are weakening and have not following the big boys up (they lead them up initially) and are diverging...
Look at this chart on a log scale back to the 1967-1975 period... we are in a secular bear market, the fed owns all the bonds and long term capital management come to mind... (not that they lasted very long) with their nobel prize winning economists and owning all of a market.. sound familiar? bonds perhaps? lowest interest rates in >220years? sustainable? no..... but don't fight the tape - it is a quick way to the poor house
traderswin dionvuletich
You will agree by october when a new high gets created. I agree partly that mar is short, but I dont agree your A-B-C Zig-Zag. Any ways good luck and happy learning.
dionvuletich traderswin
I only trade using fibs alone, so disagree that they 'don't mean much'
I hope it does make a new high as you said but hopefully after a 5% drop first, if it makes a new high in October then great! it will be divergent and a great time to short... having a long term view and trading are two completely separate things as you know... this is purely a guessing game at this stage on long term charts, the market will tell us in due course. Because I believe it may be a top forming, does not mean I am short
traderswin dionvuletich
I used to trade alone with FIBS when I got started. Goodluck and happy trading. Did not mean to say your analysis was wrong, I usually dont comment but since you said comments are welcome I did post my view
For the record I welcome comments of any constructive comments even if they counter my point of view. You'll note that he above dialog was with someone else not the publisher of this chart. I thank you both for your insight.
How did you decide this the top before major correction to 1259? Though it might be top in the short/Intermediate term, it is not pulling back to 1260.
LuisVelazco traderswin
I'm basing that on the harmonic cycles that the S&P500 has demonstrated in the past two major corrections. But, this is a highly speculative conclusion based on historical data. In my limited experience, I have found that it is easier to identify market tops, bottoms and short term moves, than it is to make such bold predictions. My main point in this exercise was to show the top which I believe I have correctly identified. The length and depth of the drop was meant to be a loosely based worst case scenario. The 1545 area is the more realistic projection. I also used RSI to compare the similarities in it's movement during the two prior tops leading to the corrections. That and a properly timed catalyst (of the many potential catalysts we have today) is all we need to give the Bears the edge.
traderswin LuisVelazco
I think it is intermediate top also. But the down side does not seem to be as deep. I am basing this on Elliot wave count.
LuisVelazco traderswin
LOL! I'm working on mastering advanced patterns an Fibonacci ratios and then I'm moving to Elliot wave and Ichimoku. I'll look at the Elliot wave count you're referring to . Thanks!
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