$SPX: Where We Might Go

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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In addition to increasing odds of a Brexit, many analysts are fearing a bubble in both bonds and equities. When the cost of capital approaches zero in a capitalist system dislocations are certain to occur.

In looking at past tops, the second week that open and closes lower (red) and has lower intra week highs and lower intra week lows than the prior week usually puts things in motion for a decent move down. I know I am over simplifying a complex process, but what has been said is generally true.

But we could easily see violent retracements to the upside but as long a no new high is made odds favor lower prices as long as sentiment remains risk off.

When we hit 2111 the mover lower after the second weekly red candle was brief because at 2025 sentiment shifted to risk on. And we must acknowledge that very risk today because the longer term trend is risk on.

Next week we have a Fed meeting and the following week we have the referendum on the Brexit so beyond likely volatility I'm less than certain what to expect.

But if sentiment remains risk off, we should see a bias to the downside and we might visit our friends at 2185 and possibly those at 2070 ish             .

Thanks for reading
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