one23

SPX: BIG PICTURE TREND-FOLLOWING SYSTEM - UPDATE

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
91 0 1
SEE LINKED CHART FOR CONTEXT.

USING DPO 21 (TO MATCH UP WITH FIB-BASED EMA 21 IN LINKED CHART) MAY BE SUPERIOR FOR VARIOUS REASONS TO USING TWO EMAs.

ONE REASON IS THAT IT PAINTS A SMOOTHER PICTURE, ALLOWING ONE TO SEE MEANINGFUL PEAKS AND TROUGHS MORE EASILY.

THE DPO, UNLIKE THE PPO USED IN LINKED CHART, IMPLIES THAT SPX             MAY BE MORE OVERBOUGHT NOW THAN IN 2000.

THE MECHANICS OF THE PPO ARE CLEAR. I NEED TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE DPO'S MECHANICS, BUT AS OF NOW, IT SEEMS THAT BEING LONG SPX             AT THIS LEVEL IS QUITE RISKY.

SEPARATELY, IT IS NOTABLE THAT SPX             HAS CLEARED YEARLY PIVOT R1 ON A CLOSING BASIS.

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