I'm updating my last reading on SPX about the beginning of a bearish leg. I understand that that previous signal has worked, and market failed to support the 200-SMA, although we're now facing a new test.
My outlook remains the same, that the main trend is bearish, but I also believe that the path to the low may come along with counter-trend movements and congestions.
On March 13th, prices reached the region of the last bottom and a massive buying volume showed up sustaining the market upper from that level. This drove us to where we are now, pulling back to the 200-SMA, and this famous average is now giving us a new make or break setup.
The next days movements will probably drive the direction of the market for the next few weeks, and that could be either bearish or bullish.
I would prefer if this was a bearish movement, along with the trend, that tends to make a more straighforward path and with a longer target (I estimate a gain around 10 to 15%, counting from last week close). Any set of black candles would point this way.
On the other hand, some white candles, specially with a good volume, would point to the bullish or congestion case. But I believe that it would be a counter trend movement, barely reaching the previous top region (with a posssible return of 6% to 9%) - of course I can be wrong, but then we re-evalute the scenario if the top if reached.
I don't know if I will trade the bull case, because I think this would be a more short-term situation. But for the bear case, I'm keeping open my bearish position that targets the next few months.
My outlook remains the same, that the main trend is bearish, but I also believe that the path to the low may come along with counter-trend movements and congestions.
On March 13th, prices reached the region of the last bottom and a massive buying volume showed up sustaining the market upper from that level. This drove us to where we are now, pulling back to the 200-SMA, and this famous average is now giving us a new make or break setup.
The next days movements will probably drive the direction of the market for the next few weeks, and that could be either bearish or bullish.
I would prefer if this was a bearish movement, along with the trend, that tends to make a more straighforward path and with a longer target (I estimate a gain around 10 to 15%, counting from last week close). Any set of black candles would point this way.
On the other hand, some white candles, specially with a good volume, would point to the bullish or congestion case. But I believe that it would be a counter trend movement, barely reaching the previous top region (with a posssible return of 6% to 9%) - of course I can be wrong, but then we re-evalute the scenario if the top if reached.
I don't know if I will trade the bull case, because I think this would be a more short-term situation. But for the bear case, I'm keeping open my bearish position that targets the next few months.
