andrewunknown

S&P 500: 3rd Rejection at 50DSMA, 1625-35 TL Support Just Below

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
398 6 4
SPX             closes 15 points below its 50-Day SMA , finishing its fourth session beneath the widely-watched moving average . Monday, Tuesday and now Wednesday's candles feature consecutive failed attempts to retake the 50-Day.

This 50-Day break does NOT have the flippant "buy the dip" tone of the previous 5 tests since the November 2012 low
(reflexive 06/20/13 post-"Pseudo-Hawk" Bernanke Q&A breakdown aside). Proximity maintained to the 50-Day and rising trend support just below is pro-trend continuation, while inability to close the deal to retake the 50-Day on 3 occasions in a row is a concession to the bears. Attention now turns to rising trend line support off the November 2012 low between 1625-1635.
Matog
3 years ago
nice man!!
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OldGoat
3 years ago
Excellent!
I don't understand how the Day 4 Green Candle on 4/22 "completes Bullish Three Outside Up". Please elaborate.
Thanks.
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andrewunknown OldGoat
3 years ago
thanks! On the Three Outside Up (days 2-4, just to muddy the waters a bit): Day 3 opens where Day 2 (the close beneath the 50DSMA) closes, and then closes above Day 2's open, creating an index engulfing body (on instruments where gaps are common, i.e. stocks, to qualify as an engulfing candle would require an open below the previous candle's close). The final day here is a confirmation day, affirming the bullish tone set by the engulfing candle.
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OldGoat andrewunknown
3 years ago
Thank you.
You may find of interest that the December lows penetrated into the trend band of Nov-Jun on the ES1!. My guess is that we are going to bounce along the upper end of that Nov-Jun trend line for the next 5-10 trading days before heading lower to a turning point in the last half of September.
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andrewunknown OldGoat
3 years ago
Wasn't aware of that - that's an important outlier to make note of. I don't use MAs in my working analysis - really only on big-picture looks like this - so usually only aware of where an instrument is trading relative to them when I see chatter pick up about a key average, like this. With the July FOMC Minutes out of the way, the only things between here and the Sept FOMC is NFP. Along with US budget/debt ceiling discussion and German elections (though little doubt about the net outcome there), it'll be an eventful intro to the Fall trading season.
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