chromius24

Don't Believe the Hype

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Monthly chart from the early 80s of SPX . From Nov/Dec of 1980 to Jul 1982 SPX went from approximately 141 to 103 over a year and a half period. A 27% loss overall. Here is a headline from Jan 81 - "Economy Shows Surprising Strength". There are many examples of this in the past. Use Google's news search tool and search dates just before the market had severe downturns. No one predicts them accurately and the news always pushes sunny sounding headlines just before it hits. Ill put a link to the news article below. Just saying - don't rely on the headlines to make investment/trading decisions. Use your own market awareness.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1...
Comment: That link didn't work -
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1...
Comment: Anyway you'll have to look em up for yourself but you get the idea...
Actually, most analysts are still predicting recession. Global slowdown can't be stopped by more stimulus, every additional monetary stimulus becomes less and less efficient. Either way, great post! Historical outlook always helps.
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chromius24 step_ahead_ofthemarket
@step_ahead_ofthemarket, I think less than 30% analysts/economists are currently predicting a recession in the next 12 months. They've never been right in the past anyway though.
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chromius24 step_ahead_ofthemarket
@step_ahead_ofthemarket, Thanks for the comment!
+1 Reply
@chromius24, Mathematically the recession probability is around 26-32%(around average). Maybe we have different sources, has to be more than 30% analysts. There are just too many geopolitical risks for 2020. It doesn't matter much, point still stands on economic slowdown.
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