jele_31

summer melt up

Long
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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Moving averages crossing again indicating an extraordinary (and extraordinarily absurd and revolting) massive leg up.

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if we follow the golden/death cross theory we should have a big leg down 23rd of march.
The opposite happened... I wouldn't count on that. especially with the beautiful sandwich candles of the past 2 weeks.
+ this week candle is quite ugly, shows a good rejection of the down trend line + march 2nd retracement = 0.786 fibo retracement:
+1 Reply
jele_31 TheTradingDog-real
@TheTradingDog-real, not exactly, moving averages crossed on FEB 27; which was the most profitable time to be short
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@jele_31, ? on your chart it's 23rd of MARCH , on the daily it's even later : on the 30th of march, right before the rally :


"The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages." investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp#:~:text=The%20death%20cross%20is%20a,and%20200%2Dday%20moving%20averages.

+ actually the cross didn't happen yet, we could still see a rejection...
but my conclusion is that I wouldn't rely o nthis as an indicator.
+1 Reply
@jele_31, Well I guess you meant that the bar crossed the 200 MA in february... and I would indeed agree that i will cross again the 200 MA downward.
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jele_31 TheTradingDog-real
@TheTradingDog-real, I was using the weekly chart; I guess it's always possible to change the scope in order to win an argument; which is definitely something that goes both ways. let's see what happens next week
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jele_31 TheTradingDog-real
@TheTradingDog-real, I would also add that you have the same indicators on SSE and US dollar index to support my argument
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@jele_31, let's see how it plays out ;)
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jele_31 TheTradingDog-real
@TheTradingDog-real, your conclusion?
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@jele_31, what do you think?

For me it had no meaningful impact, what I mean is that it didn't especially boost the trend...actually the slope of the MA is flat/decreasing, which means that the bulls are not gaining additional traction:



Actually as I am from Europe and I have my savings in EUR, I tend to look at this relative to EUR (so SPX/EURUSD)... and although it crossed, it's crossing back again.
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jele_31 TheTradingDog-real
@TheTradingDog-real, we'll have to disagree once more; but this time I'm adding a bolder forecast.
S&P up almost 40%. To 4300
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