Recent bear markets have been short events, 3 months to 3 years. However, there are lengthy periods where we essentially chop sideways, and we are about due.
~2400% pumps seems to be the trend. However, we're so far from the 100yr bull trend line & 17k SPY, that it will struggle to go straight up from here. How much further is hard to say, but it has to return to the 100yr trend line eventually, and that will entail another 12+ year stretch of -50%, +100% ranging moves.
~2400% pumps seems to be the trend. However, we're so far from the 100yr bull trend line & 17k SPY, that it will struggle to go straight up from here. How much further is hard to say, but it has to return to the 100yr trend line eventually, and that will entail another 12+ year stretch of -50%, +100% ranging moves.
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closer look at the last 20 years
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You can see we've had some mini flats, 2yr stretches, that form legs 2 & 4 of a 5 wave.
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maybe something like this
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we may already be 5 years deep on one of these cycles, 2400-4800 is the -50% +100% cycle