I don't think I'm doing anything novel by illustrating above the somewhat unconventional that has played out on the S&P 500 . A lot of people have spotted this and it has driven a lot of technicians to be . I don't necessarily disagree, but I've heard a lot of calls lately which leads me to believe that we will see one last blow-off rally before we see any downside. My best guess is that the government shutdown ends and the S&P rips higher only to be sold off after running into the 2620-2630 range.
There is, of course, a potential for us simply to collapse from these levels. The VIX has dropped into support, stochastics are very overbought, the trade war is unresolved, Powell waffles between hawkish and dovish and global growth concerns remain. And yet, a is a and we must respect it until it either tests resistance or fails on its own.
I think we can short the S&P 500 on a rally into the 2620-2630 range.
Target 1: 2550
Target 2: 2520