YaKa
Short

SPX - Trad - Ultra tactical

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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17
436 4
Short 40% stop 2125 on close
Time stop 2nd of march if above entry on close.
As soon as close below 2100 move stop to entry. (no loss)


Reasoning:
1) Monthly R2 was reached (Monthly R2 was never reached since May13).
2) The monthly ATR is 97 and the current range for February is already 138 (which, apart from Oct14, is the widest month since Oct11).
3) The area is confluence of trendlines (which are not very precise but should cap overall.
4) The news are out, the progress has been tepid the last few days. Each point higher is laborious.
5) SPX has been in upside posture for 18days (apart from oct/nov14) this is close to the longest streaks in 2013..

I think the upside is very limited overall and even more before the end of February.

The question is more if SPX can stay flat at the top for a while (which it did a few times: Nov14, Sep14, Jul14, jan14, Jul13..). The longer it stays at the top, the more confident the bulls will be.

Agreed 2128.50 $spx caps. And while this drama can drag on - $spx is headed down at least to test 2063.50 $spx and perhaps lower to 2037.50 $spx in March 2015. 2/24 was a CIT. Next is 2/27 and then 3/2-3. Good luck!
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YaKa coinmantra
Can you explain what is CIT?
27th of feb
23rd of march?
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Yacine - Change in Trend (CIT or Time Pivot). Sorry I am in US so the dates were Feb 24th (2/24), Feb 27th (likely low) and March 2nd-3rd (there is a hyphen in the middle) - likely high
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Using the FIB, if you do a longer big pic view, we're hitting resistance at the 1.618 Fib line or close to hitting (all depends on how you use the tool) so it will be interesting to see if we power above or bounce off for a bit of a down swing.

Your fist circle is most likely the stop, but I can see the 2nd as a true flush out scare play (I also have these as support). The 3rd, well if we hit that then we're in trouble lol. But, if we power above and stay, than we have room to run much much higher.
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