SPX - Question for you. — S&P 500 index of US listed shares (FX:SPX500) / 2015-04-24 — YaKa

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S&P 500 index of US listed shares (FX:SPX500)

FX:SPX500 S&P 500 index of US listed shares

Weekly candles.

Expecting the wedge to carry on for ever is a mistake.

One week it is going to switch and it may be swift when it does.

There may be a last rebound from 2040 again but overall the same question would be have to be asked again 6 weeks later around 2140.

The question is on the chart.

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about SPX500

expect the same 220 point drop from today as back in june 2011....(or actually expect more downside)

brianhimmelstrupnielsen

:) Sometimes I think i am a bit bearish close to tops and dont let the last 2% occur.. You are far beyond me:)

Ahh 2140!

reluctantplumber

You are consistent.

May i ask you something? 2140 was just 20pts away yesterday, why would you risk 80 to 200pts down for this small upside?

YaKa

Well in fact I added to the short side yesterday - but not all in - expecting a red day today.

YaKa

What if there is no 200pts correction. You get in at 2200 then?

Cpt_Picard

I will place the rest of my short budget at 2140 give or take a few points. If we go to 2200 from there it will be painful for me to watch.

Market climbs on bad news because it means Fed would not raise rates... There is going to be a limit to this reasoning. (durable good orders).

YaKa

I expect a silent trigger - flip of the algo switch type of correction.

YaKa

They day I understood this was happening was the day I understood we are in an unsustainable bubble. When the market rises on bad news it is obvious prices are being sustained unhealthily.

thanks for this chart.

Gann analysis of that period would have given you fair warning.....

the chart should appear here

pezq

Sorry for offtopic question here. But is this site focusing to 99% on technical analysis? I'm new around here.

Cpt_Picard

Hi Alberth, There tends to be a fair amount of TA. But there are quite a few straightforward trade ideas. I am looking forward to the trade panel working properly as then we would be able to follow the traders with a proven track record! I would welcome more good honest trade setups with good/verygood risk reward. Particularly of the 2 day - 2 week variety.

And the latest moves on 4hr chart, which for technical reasons is one of the best time frames to use

The question is - does this look like a correction or consolidation into an upside move?

pezq

That is the question on everyone's mind. What is your take?

reluctantplumber

April economic data will decide is my opinion. Time is running out for these bad numbers. Not so sure though it would get us down into correction territory.

reluctantplumber

I did answer your question but I think you will find it below the thread. Regards

This is what a 3 day chart looks like

To answer your question as a trader, it doesnt matter to me whether the price rises or falls. All that matters is a consistent trading methodology and iron like money management. For what its worth I mostly use a 4hr chart and a 9 period Keltner Channel. When the average price closes above the 9 period middle channel I am long. When it closes below I am short. I use 3 day charts to plan the endpoints and fibonacci levels.

pezq

smart & wise

pezq

Thanks for the great input!

Checking other possibilities.

answer, what i have found in chart... no idea if it will behave like this, just scenario, as always, could happen or be discarded

I don't disagree with your thoughts on the wedge, however here is another perspective to consider.
This suggests that the lift could technically go on indefinitely.
The range of the large red channel lifting from 2011 is approx. 240 pts., allowing for large moves and until we see the lower red channel support broken, the market technically remains within the positive trend.

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