The S&P 500 continue strong and the bond market is helping build momentum on the upside with rates at 2.29%, at this moment of updating valuation, Sentiment has increased Momentum to 0.52% spread widening the expected range for trading today on the S&P 500 . Watch for momentum on the bond market as measure by the benchmark 10 yr yield not to reach the 2.38% on that level of 2.38% momentum will decrease significantly.
Fundamental Valuation Analysis:
On the Fundamental side the S&P 500 next 12 months Intrinsic Value is 2115.30 or an undervaluation of 2.10%.
is Pricing the S&P 500 at 2092.11 suggesting moderate upside momentum.
The Relative Cost to ratio is at 0.86, above 1 indicate an OverValue Market, a reading of 0.86 suggest a market getting tired but still with more momentum to go.
The S&P 500 Risk Premium is 0.89 relative to S&P 500 Dividend yield, suggesting as the relative cost to yield a market close to getting tired, when this ratio is at or close to 1 the market usually drop.
Reward to Risk Analysis:
The Ratio of Miss valuation for the next 12 months on the S&P 500 and the 10 YR Yield is 0.91 suggesting a decrease in stocks momentum buying relative to bonds. This also suggest to buy the S&P 500 on a dip when the ratio be above 1 suggesting better opportunity in stocks than bonds.
Also Miss Valuation on the S&P 500 for next year relative to the Cost of investment to be in the USA market is 0.38 telling us that you are getting paying more than you can earn, this is a conservative measure for investor looking for value.
The median Fair Value on the S&P 500 , Sentiment, Technical and Fundamental is 2087. 44
The best way to enter this market still long but we advise to enter this market based on dip.
Jose Gomez Nunez,
Valuation Analyst at ValueRule