jhains2

Narrow "Line" Pattern has Lasted More Than 2 Weeks

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
222 1 7
This narrow "Line" pattern (please refer to your copy of Edwards & Magee) has lasted more than 2 weeks, having started on 7/14. This is an unusually long timeframe for such a narrow trading range.

John Bollinger has noted on Facebook             that his "bands" are extremely constricted and that such a constricted band pattern is what typically happens before the market makes a big move.

Also of note on this 45-minute chart is the "Brexit" sell-off and the powerful post-Brexit rally, which featured an extraordinarily positive Advance/Decline breadth measures. Those readings lead us to think that the continuation out of the Line pattern will be to the upside.

But, a look at the calendar confirms that yes, we are now entering August, a cruel month in recent years and one in which many major market tops have been put in place including the one in 1987.

I guess the conclusion I should come to is that I should be bullish on volatility since I don't know which direction the market is going to move out of this period of reduced volatility .
Yes, get long Vega and maybe sell some calendar or diagonal spreads ... I would not want to be long on the VIX however.
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