topgun76

Looking for the Dead Cat Bounce S&P500

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
302 0 5
In my quest, I am looking for Mr Dead Cat the First, the very first short recovery or dead cat bounce which might be signal to us the confirmation of the continuation of a major Bear Market. As illustrated in the previous crashes, we see that almost uncanny similarities when using the Commodity Channel Index as an indicator to predict start and end of cycles.

The 1st Crash happened in 2000 which was the Dotcom Bubble, and the bear market around lasted 760 days or just about 2years and 1 month. We then enjoyed a long Bull market from Oct             2002             till June 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) happened. There were hiccups along the way, but we are looking at major crashes resulting in more then a 30% market decline from the high.

After the Dotcom Bubble Crash, we had enjoyed 1765 days or roughly around slight more than 4 years and 10months of good bull market runs before the Great Financial Crisis happened which saw the fall of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns in 2007.

After the GFC, the bear market this time was relatively shorter and only lasted 487days or around slightly more than 1 year and 4 months. I guess people learnt to pick themselves up faster, that's the spirit of the human race. Currently, we have the good fortune of enjoying 2039 days of bull markets and nothing major. No Black Swans were born, no bad omen.

However we do need to becareful, everything on the charts is showing that we are at a critical juncture now. The crash might not happen now but it's not far from now. So if you know your poker, you've had an amazing good run the past 5 years. And you're running out of Aces. It's time to cash out the big chips in the left pocket and play only with the dimes in your right pocket.

History might not repeat itself but the Smart Money, the instituitions do leave footprints. When the smart Money knows there's something bad about to happened, they need to unwind their positions. They will need to make the market think the other way. They need to create the markets to sell so that they can buy. Similarly they need to create the markets to buy so that they can sell. These are all shown in the price patterns and to a certain extent trackable. At least I believe so, due to their sheer size, the 10 major banks control more than 60% of the total money invested in the markets and they certaintly can do that.

So what can we retail traders do to track the Smart Money? We try find the bodies of the Dead Cats that the Smart Money kills and leaves behind to save their own asses
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