ForceFollower
Short

SPX500 H4: Looking Bearish

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
The S&P's price wasn't admitted back to the blue fork, which means the bearish trend is quite strong. It has also failed to reach the red median line nor 38.2% of the prior swing's down, which adds evidence to the bearish scenario. If it keeps climbing higher though, I'd expect a bounce off of the red upper median line parallel.
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Related Ideas

forker PRO
a year ago
Extend the blue fork's WL's down 3, 4 times.
Could result in a nice A/R Set.
Reply
ForceFollower forker
a year ago
Thanks for the comment.
A good point. Yeah, I did that, but I couldn't find anything interesting. However, let me post a chart with these lines as well. Maybe you'll see something I can't see.
snapshot
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ForceFollower
a year ago
If it fails to close above the upper MLH, then the bearish scenario still holds.
snapshot
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forker PRO ForceFollower
a year ago
Hey ForceFollower

I see the WL's grab frequency very nice. See how the lines are acting as support and resistance?
From the view of the blue lines only, i see the following for the actual status:

1. on sept. price fell below WL1, then did a try, got rejected and was finally pushed up over the WL1

2. price did fail to go up to the L-MLH (because of?):
- Upper left 28. - big structure = pot. resistance
- price failed in the middle of this structure (see long wicks!)
- price is now approaching the WL1 again

3. If price comes down to the WL1, chances are very high it will stabilize there:
- former resistance from WL1 became support
- TL (grey, up & down) acting as a Trend barriers
- and most important, price began to stair-stepping with HL's & HH's

Opinion:
- If price comes down to the WL1 again, this would be a potential entry fro a long.
- stopp: I would place it below 1920
- target: up to the U-MLH...trailig below structure (pivots, blocks etc.)

Happy Friday :)
Reply
ForceFollower forker
a year ago
Hello forker,
thank you for the in-depth analysis. Good job! I'm glad I met a trader who knows, what MLH and WL mean. :-)
So, it's just failed to reach the lower MLH; I think it may be headed for the second WL now.
However, no matter what, I wouldn't be looking to go long in these market conditions. I am short UK100 now.
Reply
forker PRO ForceFollower
a year ago
Agree - if i think "Long", my hackles are straight up mate :)

I know, it seems completely against the Trend...and in a certain way it is.
Asking a child where he think the market is going, he probably would point south...
...but i can't deny the priceaction around WL1.

In addition, the monthly ES i've analysed points long...well, ok - has nothing to do with the 240 ;-)

snapshot


If we survive the comming days, we will know it §8-))
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP forker
a year ago
I just like to account for other more horizontal levels, other than diagonal plane. Also time vs price range.
These factors make me severely doubt about a long trade here for a trend resumption.
We could theoretically go up some more but it might take some more falling/ugly bottoming before it happens in my opinion.
Action/Reaction, right? Strongest decline since 2009...it implies a similarly large reaction to offset it before things resume their course I guess.
Reply
forker PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Good feedback Ivan.

"We could theoretically go up some more but it might take some more falling/ugly bottoming before it happens in my opinion. "

Yes, with the 240m in mind, i would agree. That's why a further reaction to the downside is totally expectable...to eat up time and create "space".
I just cant get the WL1 Support out of my mind...hmm...

Have to stopp thinking about it...my fuses getting attacked §8-)
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP forker
a year ago
Hahaha! The more we get fixated with scenarios the worse things go.
It might work, but it also might do squat :D
Let's swing them as they come.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
Maybe a daily fork?
Reply
forker PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Hahaa...right, swing the Bat when the Hydra flys out the cave §8-)

Dayli is out of context IMO - ForceFollowers plan of attack to conquest is the 240m.

Lets let the trade screem us in our face... ;-)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP forker
a year ago
Ok, pot is boiling...see ya at the other side.
Reply
ForceFollower
a year ago
Thank you guys for this interesting dialogue.
Regardless of the time frame, I believe this time around the odds are in favor of short positions - at least for as long as this market has not done it's minimum move down, which is to the orange 38.2% of the alternate price projection (prior big swing down projected onward from the top of 1995, 27-08-2015).
snapshot

snapshot
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