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I see the WL's grab frequency very nice. See how the lines are acting as support and resistance?
From the view of the blue lines only, i see the following for the actual status:
1. on sept. price fell below WL1, then did a try, got rejected and was finally pushed up over the WL1
2. price did fail to go up to the L-MLH (because of?):
- Upper left 28. - big structure = pot. resistance
- price failed in the middle of this structure (see long wicks!)
- price is now approaching the WL1 again
3. If price comes down to the WL1, chances are very high it will stabilize there:
- former resistance from WL1 became support
- TL (grey, up & down) acting as a Trend barriers
- and most important, price began to stair-stepping with HL's & HH's
- If price comes down to the WL1 again, this would be a potential entry fro a long.
- stopp: I would place it below 1920
- target: up to the U-MLH...trailig below structure (pivots, blocks etc.)
Happy Friday :)
thank you for the in-depth analysis. Good job! I'm glad I met a trader who knows, what MLH and WL mean. :-)
So, it's just failed to reach the lower MLH; I think it may be headed for the second WL now.
However, no matter what, I wouldn't be looking to go long in these market conditions. I am short UK100 now.
I know, it seems completely against the Trend...and in a certain way it is.
Asking a child where he think the market is going, he probably would point south...
...but i can't deny the priceaction around WL1.
In addition, the monthly ES i've analysed points long...well, ok - has nothing to do with the 240 ;-)
If we survive the comming days, we will know it §8-))
These factors make me severely doubt about a long trade here for a trend resumption.
We could theoretically go up some more but it might take some more falling/ugly bottoming before it happens in my opinion.
Action/Reaction, right? Strongest decline since 2009...it implies a similarly large reaction to offset it before things resume their course I guess.
"We could theoretically go up some more but it might take some more falling/ugly bottoming before it happens in my opinion. "
Yes, with the 240m in mind, i would agree. That's why a further reaction to the downside is totally expectable...to eat up time and create "space".
I just cant get the WL1 Support out of my mind...hmm...
Have to stopp thinking about it...my fuses getting attacked §8-)
Regardless of the time frame, I believe this time around the odds are in favor of short positions - at least for as long as this market has not done it's minimum move down, which is to the orange 38.2% of the alternate price projection (prior big swing down projected onward from the top of 1995, 27-08-2015).