There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Regardless of the time frame, I believe this time around the odds are in favor of short positions - at least for as long as this market has not done it's minimum move down, which is to the orange 38.2% of the alternate price projection (prior big swing down projected onward from the top of 1995, 27-08-2015).
I see the WL's grab frequency very nice. See how the lines are acting as support and resistance?
From the view of the blue lines only, i see the following for the actual status:
1. on sept. price fell below WL1, then did a try, got rejected and was finally pushed up over the WL1
2. price did fail to go up to the L-MLH (because of?):
- Upper left 28. - big structure = pot. resistance
- price failed in the middle of this structure (see long wicks!)
- price is now approaching the WL1 again
3. If price comes down to the WL1, chances are very high it will stabilize there:
- former resistance from WL1 became support
- TL (grey, up & down) acting as a Trend barriers
- and most important, price began to stair-stepping with HL's & HH's
- If price comes down to the WL1 again, this would be a potential entry fro a long.
- stopp: I would place it below 1920
- target: up to the U-MLH...trailig below structure (pivots, blocks etc.)
Happy Friday :)
thank you for the in-depth analysis. Good job! I'm glad I met a trader who knows, what MLH and WL mean. :-)
So, it's just failed to reach the lower MLH; I think it may be headed for the second WL now.
However, no matter what, I wouldn't be looking to go long in these market conditions. I am short UK100 now.
I know, it seems completely against the Trend...and in a certain way it is.
Asking a child where he think the market is going, he probably would point south...
...but i can't deny the priceaction around WL1.
In addition, the monthly ES i've analysed points long...well, ok - has nothing to do with the 240 ;-)
If we survive the comming days, we will know it §8-))
These factors make me severely doubt about a long trade here for a trend resumption.
We could theoretically go up some more but it might take some more falling/ugly bottoming before it happens in my opinion.
Action/Reaction, right? Strongest decline since 2009...it implies a similarly large reaction to offset it before things resume their course I guess.
"We could theoretically go up some more but it might take some more falling/ugly bottoming before it happens in my opinion. "
Yes, with the 240m in mind, i would agree. That's why a further reaction to the downside is totally expectable...to eat up time and create "space".
I just cant get the WL1 Support out of my mind...hmm...
Have to stopp thinking about it...my fuses getting attacked §8-)