YaKa

SP500 - Big Picture Posture

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
279 7 5
Chart Extracts:
- Large Rally have have a tendency to last 5 Years. Note: that sometimes they have lasted 8/9 years in the past.
- A topping process has the tendency to last 5 Months and mark 3 little tops at different altitudes depending on the regime.
- A good rally tend to climb 200/250%.
- Once the rally has been above 5y/200% and the spot goes below the 200d ema for many weeks in a row, the rally may be over (here 200d is at 1970).
- In the current stance, there is a lot of energy but little space available vertically - Watch out.
- The next few weeks are Very Pivotal - Fact.
I was looking at the spx on the weekly chart using extreme tma bands. In the last 30 years there have been 9 times where the center tma line paints from green (bull) to grey (neutral). In each instance price has returned back to the bottom extreme band or pierced it, currently at 1909. Eight weeks ago the extreme tma band painted grey,(10th signal) looking left of the chart a caution signal. Like you noted, price can take up to 5 months to form a top. Once the tma paints grey on the weekly, the spx previously has taken 8-20 weeks to form a final top. Maybe this is a false signal? Central Banks seem to want only one direction at the moment. Look at this week, Monday Australia Rate Cut, Tuesday China Rate Cut, Wednesday Kocherlakota Restart QE Comment, Thursday Denmark Rate Cut. Who's going to give the markets the big boost today, next week or the week after? Seems to me world markets are looking for their next fix, when they can't find it anymore it will not be a pretty sight.
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What is TMA? + please post a chart because really i did not get what you were talking about.
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elp YaKa
Tradingview doesn't have extreme tma bands. Here's a link to show what I am talking about. http://www.screencast.com/t/4BnGE5ZaoCuJ
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ok thanks.
how is the tma band build?
How do you count the weeks?
what is your conclusion in timing and targets?
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elp YaKa
I am not good at coding indicators, best to google it.

I count from when the first week where the tma turns grey to the actual high before price returns back to the bottom extreme band.

My conclusion from looking left of the chart, price is over extended and could make a high in a time frame of 8- 20 weeks before price returns back to the bottom extreme band if not pierce it. My thought, using extreme tma bands on a weekly chart, if price has done this 9 times in the past it could do it again. Price targets, T1 2068, T2 2090, T3 2115 Price at 2115 at the upper weekly trendline would get me short, with a target of 2022.

snapshot
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Yes - those are the obvious perfect short target.
So obvious that i think it will fail exactly here and come back strong after a bear trap at 1880.
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elp YaKa
In 2014 there were 5 daily squeeze setups, where 4 sold off into support after the squeeze triggered, later making a new all time high. Only the may squeeze (3) triggered with price rallying. Currently the spx is making its first daily squeeze, if history repeats, 1880 seems doable. If not then this could be a repeat of May 2014? TBD

How did you come with an 1880 target?

snapshot
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