YaKa
Short

SP500 Short Trade Parameters

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
Bottom in place at 1820 for 2/3 weeks only. Then it can be challenged/breached.

Next few weeks mapping
28Oct Top: 1980/2000
31Oct Close: 1966 (small weekly shooting star)
Nov W1 Range: 1970/1890
Nov W2 Top: 1970
Nov W3 Dec W1/2 Crash: 1650 BUY! Potentially 2550 in 2017.

Trade:
Short 1980/1990 Stop 2030
Buy 1850 Dec Puts.
Take Profit: 1650

Rational:
1 – Fundamental: The tepid growth can’t drive the rally further from these high grounds. A Decent Reset is in order.
2 – Fundamental: US QE             Tapering, Nothing coming from ECB that the market liked.
3 – Technical: Rally 09 = Rally 11 in percentage ~100%
4 – Technical: Rally 11 Supporting line clearly broken below.
5 – Technical: Correcting 38% of Rally 11 is in order (That is 18% down from September top) – 1650 target
6 – Technical: The 125d EMA has just turned negative 10d ago, it has called for large corrections in the past.
7 – Relative Considerations: Rates pointing lower, Credit unable to tighten further, Small cap (R2k) unable to perform for a while, DAX             Close to bottom and unable to jump so far, Nasdaq/Apple Capped here..
7 – Game Theory: No better time for a crash than when the least Expected. We had 5 Santa Claus rally in a row. I bet this year is different.

Note: the correction in 2011 was also one that corrected 38% the previous move up from 2009 (in weekly closes).

Strong Advise:
If you are not short: DO NOT STAY LONG Nov W3 to Dec W2
Little to win, loads to lose...
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out