AynCzubas
Short

Beginning a 3rd Wave Decline

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
105 9 2
Based on the theory that the drop to 1833 was a 1st wave:

1. An ABC correction (apparently a running flat) then rose up to 1995.4, making a 50% retracement of the drop to 1833 from 2137. I label that as a 2nd wave.

2. Then from 1995.4 to 1901.6, there was a downward impulsive wave which appears to be an initial minor wave of a 3rd wave.

3. That was followed by an ABC correction (a zigzag ) up to 1960.2 which retraced quite exactly 61.8% of the preceding drop.

4. Provided 1995.4 is not exceeded, I am now expecting a 3rd of a 3rd wave to reach down, at minimum, to 1808, which would represent a typical 1.618 extension of the impulse wave described in point #2 above. The subsequent downside target might be in the high 1700 range (1772-1791?) to end the 5th wave of this small impulse from 1995.4.

I believe these are only the beginning waves of a much deeper decline and will assess the count based on further developments, as always.
Pretty much something like this.
I think nested impulse, we haven't even seen wave 3 of 1 of big III (same degree as the sharp decline that made people call it "Black Monday". Imagine what they'll say when big III fires if they called a wave 1 'Black Monday'...)
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AynCzubas IvanLabrie
a year ago
They might call it 'Doomsday'
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IvanLabrie PRO AynCzubas
a year ago
snapshot


Let's start now.
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AynCzubas IvanLabrie
a year ago
Ivan, I published this chart about a month ago.
Did the Bear Wave Begin on May 19/20th?


You noted that the height of this seemed like a complex terminal pattern. I believe the bull market finished in an ending diagonal, which is exactly that. It does seem uncertain to me whether the bull ended and bear began at the actual high in May or later on in June. The downward wave structure is not very clean coming from the May high, and it counts much more cleanly as an impulse down from the June 22nd high, but at the time I could count a 5-wave impulse from the May 19th high (see chart) considering the 4th wave of it as a triangle which did overlap but did not end above the 1st wave of it. If interpreted as such, I could count the cleaner impulse down from June 22nd as a second, nested 1st wave. If not, the ending diagonal might have had a failed 5th wave (i.e. the June peak), which could explain the actual high in the market not having been the orthodox beginning of the correction. In any case, the point difference between the two highs is pretty narrow.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
I mean July 20, not June 22nd. Originally I had that wave 2 assumed ending in June. July was higher, so it should be shifted over to July to represent a longer ABC ending in July, not June.
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AynCzubas IvanLabrie
a year ago
At the beginning of June, this was my view of the ending diagonal. I was clearly off about the 5th wave, allowing for more complexity than it apparently had. I expected it would ultimately spike at least 30 points higher, but it seems to have finished on May 19th.
4th Wave Triangle Prelude to Final Thrust Up in Ending Diagonal?
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IvanLabrie PRO AynCzubas
a year ago
It's a more complex pattern, the terminal is bigger, but, not traditional Pretcher school EW (I'm studying neowave): http://www.neowave.com/qow/qow-archive-903.asp / http://www.neowave.com/qow/qow-archive-240.asp


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AynCzubas
a year ago
snapshot
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AynCzubas
a year ago
Alternate Count: Wave 4 Triangle Developing
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