trip.trading
Short

S&P500: Time (April 21) meets Price (1865)

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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CONCLUSION & STRATEGY

For the next couple of months (May - August) I'm expecting a downtrend towards 1700.

After the summer, expect new all time highs to finish wave 5 up (2015 expected).

After that, brace yourself for a MAJOR and Long Term Trend down for several years.

What to do?
If 1872.53 is breached to the upside, shorts should be closed and put on hold, waiting for new opportunities to short.

Longs could use the following levels as stoploss:
1860, 1840, 1815.



TIME CYCLES

As you can se in the grpah, April 21 seems to be lining up where Time meets Price. This could indicate that we will decline till April 28, after which we will rise into May 5/6.

The beginning of May seems te be lining up for a important turning point, as a lot of short term as well as longer term cycles come together. The important dates are listed below:

Monday May 5 & Tuesday May 6: 30, 45, 60, 90, 180 day

Monday April 21: a 30 and a 45 day
Monday April 28: a 45 and a 180 day.

KEY LEVELS
1897
1872.53
1860
1840
1815
1800
1775 (gap)
1738
1700


ELLIOT WAVE
If my count is correct, we are in wave 4ABC down, price target 1700.
I believe we are in 4Adown - 3down - 2 up - to max 1872.53 ----> next, expect 4A - 3down - 3down. Price target 1800.
If 1872.53 is breached to the upside, this count seems to be incorrect and shorts should be closed.


PATTERN
Megaphone Pattern emerging on different time frames, price targets 1800 and 1700.

Furthermore, a Shoulder - Head - Shoulder pattern is presenting itself.


INDICATORS
Stochastics (short term): on a BUY

MACD (longer term): on a SELL, but close to a new BUY signal. A couple more days to the upside (close above 1872) and we are on a BUY.
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