SP500 - Follow the guide

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
457 0 10
The guide is actually the 400d ema . A key moving average in big picture.

The topping process could only have started with the definition of the left shoulder of head-and-shoulder.

If the assumption is correct and the market corrects from here in the next 6 weeks, a great buy may occur around 1880 on the 400d ema itself after a complex ABCDE where B is higher than inception.

With the information available, i currently like the path on this graph.

For this to happen would mean that the ECB QE release in January does not immediately excite the market... or it would mean it is delayed until February...

The ECB QE will not buy equities (yet at least)... it will focus on sovereign bonds which are already trading very tight.. Even tighter than the US after many years of QE ... And it is very expected/priced already... NOT SURE what will be the immediate response and the market may correct first before launching up (like it did in Sep12).

If this path is correct:
Short 2080
Buy 1880
Sell 2160

My view is the market needs to expand and lateralise (it will still do new tops over the coming months).
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