YaKa
Short

SPX - Difference between a propulsion and a climax

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
1273 0 5
Someone asked me this morning: How do you make the difference between a climax and a propulsion that will lead to a long lasting rally?

My answer is:
- If you look within the first 3/4 weeks of a sharp move up, there is no difference between a climax and a propulsion and that is why every sharp move up creates enthusiasm.
- The big difference is: the new rally rarely breaks the speed limits created by the previous top to top line.
- As can be seen from the chart below:
* The propulsion in Jul09, Jul10, aug10, oct11, Nov11, Nov12, Jul13 had space to go higher without constraints.
* The climax in red, have no space to move higher as they hit into the previous speed lines (Apr10, Feb11, Mar12, Sep12, Nov14?)
- Note that the climax in Feb14, had to lateralise a lot (5 weeks) to be able to climb another 8% to Sep14. Rally that took 5 months.

Nov14:
- Super strong rally leading exactly to the red line yesterday.
- Very unlikely to break vertically given previous speed limits since Jan14 and Apr10.
- If it is going to lateralise and move up again (slowly), why so fast then? why zero correction within? It is more likely to be a lure.
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