I tried to find reasons to justify this move up - I can't get it fundamentally.
My conclusion is that the market was positioned for a "patience" removal but no accommodating language and the move we have seen is probably a squeeze reversal.
The technical picture did not change:
- SP500 is still in the upper band with limited upside and shall find its way down through 2020 in the next few weeks.
- The upside is limited to some 3% vertically and 1% per month therafter.
- For the moment: let's call it a slow cooking barbecue.
Note Though:
While the drift persists, the oscillations required to maintain the altitude are increasing in amplitude.
This increasing agitation is a sign of weakness but interestingly it gives the impression the market is still in strong bull posture when it posts a 45pts hourly move like yesterday.