Although it looks like there is a breakout, there is not actually much space available to climb.
At best SP500 could climb 40pts in the next 4 weeks (2%).
If a failure occurs which i believe is likely, SPX could actually fall 200pts (10%).
Note: the config is very similar to july 2007... the market had rallied 18weeks and climbed 15%... plateauing for many weeks and pretending to breakout for 1 week or 2 before it fell 10% .... a repeat would not surprise me.
I I think it will fall. I want it to fall. let's see.
my game plan is simple: i bought the put spread 2000/1930 expi 20mar15. against 2140 call expi 20mar15.... and added 20% size short around 2060 which could lose 20bp per % up and is manageable....
I am rather confident it is going to fail but my game plan is solid even if wrong.. let's see
"It won't go down. We are going to see a large breakout to the upside to far beyond your "game over" red lines. Why? Because everyone thinks this is the top. And they will be surprised that it is not the top. Therefore a lot of shorts will get closed and many people will buy in this new breakout. " (https://www.tradingview.com/v/dx8Dhdt8/)
This is still going higher, because the monthly chart is starting a new rally in March, lasting a few months, maybe even until 2016.
On most important top, it seems the market could go higher... when the top is perfect, the subsequent short is generally limited in magnitude... to balance odds and risks, market has it that good moves are lannched from incomleted stances....
here going to 2130 again would give again that perfect short where even my godson could trace the line and short the market... so no: not happening.
Live by the FED, die by the FED. There is a reason the TRUE patriots tried to abolish central banks from the beginning.... how soon STUPIDITY of the education system doesn't teach ethics, principals... it teaches how to be an automaton... F.A. Hayek simply said it best, to paraphrase, "the education system is designed to develop people that will serve the needs of the government."
The next big show to drop will be the Auto loans... just like in 2007 when we gave houses away at ZERO DOWN!!! BUY BUY BUY... we are doing the same with autos... 84 month, 96 month loans... these people will be giving up their cars left and right when the doody hits the fan.