YaKa
Short

SP500 - Risk reward 2 up by 10 down over 4 weeks.

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
921 38 8

Although it looks like there is a breakout, there is not actually much space available to climb.

At best SP500             could climb 40pts in the next 4 weeks (2%).

If a failure occurs which i believe is likely, SPX             could actually fall 200pts (10%).

Note: the config is very similar to july 2007... the market had rallied 18weeks and climbed 15%... plateauing for many weeks and pretending to breakout for 1 week or 2 before it fell 10% .... a repeat would not surprise me.

I I think it will fall. I want it to fall. let's see.

aziz92
2 years ago
" I want it to fall. let's see."
Caution.
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YaKa PRO aziz92
2 years ago
caution is always good...
my game plan is simple: i bought the put spread 2000/1930 expi 20mar15. against 2140 call expi 20mar15.... and added 20% size short around 2060 which could lose 20bp per % up and is manageable....

I am rather confident it is going to fail but my game plan is solid even if wrong.. let's see
+1 Reply
aziz92 YaKa
2 years ago
I understand. But your "I want it to fall" comment is wishful thinking. I want a lot of things too. :)
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YaKa PRO aziz92
2 years ago
well.
i did my home work.
i have a conviction, mix of facts and feeling/instinct.
i measured the risk
i placed a transaction that can survive the adverse scenario.
Now; i want it to fall - YES - I want.
sometimes you have to ask:)
+2 Reply
ChartArt
2 years ago
The US stock market is super bullish right now. Sadly I did not post a DOW industrial chart on Monday, February 9, 2015 when I expected exactly this scenario to play out. The past bullish weeks confirmed my theory so far. Here is my comment from 10 days ago:

"It won't go down. We are going to see a large breakout to the upside to far beyond your "game over" red lines. Why? Because everyone thinks this is the top. And they will be surprised that it is not the top. Therefore a lot of shorts will get closed and many people will buy in this new breakout. " (https://www.tradingview.com/v/dx8Dhdt8/)

This is still going higher, because the monthly chart is starting a new rally in March, lasting a few months, maybe even until 2016.
+1 Reply
IanLip ChartArt
2 years ago
"Because everyone thinks this is the top." ... the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
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YaKa PRO IanLip
2 years ago
yes... and who is "everyone"? it is irrelevant anyway... on most tops the equation is fairly balanced,
On most important top, it seems the market could go higher... when the top is perfect, the subsequent short is generally limited in magnitude... to balance odds and risks, market has it that good moves are lannched from incomleted stances....


here going to 2130 again would give again that perfect short where even my godson could trace the line and short the market... so no: not happening.
+1 Reply
AndrewMills ChartArt
2 years ago
in 1929, the stock market was VERY bullish indeed......
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You have been shorting for too long .Next is 2119.... Long with tight stop works better .Every short is being killed in the last 14 days.
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YaKa PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
nope...
i am short and remain short...
the number of points travelled higher is minimal... 2%... I am speaking of 10% down...
my time frame was and is still 20th of March15.
+1 Reply
SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
I will be waiting for 2230 to go short.But you got your point .
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AndrewMills SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
....and how many others are WAITING for 2230? They may be waiting and waiting as the price slips... and because they believe in some arbitrary number which means NOTHING, they base their decision on that extra .05%, than actually positioning themselves relative to their due diligence. It's not worth the risk to HOPE for 2200, or 5000 on NAZ, that's all smoke and mirrors... that's the crap they spew on CNBC...
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SwingBGtrade PRO AndrewMills
2 years ago
I am not waiting, I trade what I see today. I don't care about the next day. Every trade i hold is up to 10 hours.
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YaKa PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
SwingBG. if your time frame is 10hours... we are not speaking the same language... no need to comment on the bigger picture then.
your time frame should mostly be around the hourly i guess.. nothing to do with a multi year weekly picture.
+1 Reply
SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
I have to use the big picture for my day trading.I don't short spx500 at the moment,only long trade till 2137 .Then no more long positions .
-1 Reply
YaKa PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
as long as you have stops just below 2070 you are good i guess.
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SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
Every setup long or short is protected with 5 points stop,ratio 1/4 . If i don't get the setup ,i don't make a trade.
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SwingBGtrade PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
We are not speaking the same language ,but i do like your work.
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YaKa PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
Ok - will follow you.. would like to see your trade setups. let's stay tuned.
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SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
Take a look last night my EURUSD trade.
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SwingBGtrade PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
EURUSD long setup with target 1.1400 next 3-4 hours.German PPI can help at 2am.Bears stopes are above 1.1395.
-1 Reply
SwingBGtrade PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
snapshot
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SwingBGtrade PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
1.1325 LONG .STOP 1.1310
snapshot
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SwingBGtrade PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
I have moved stop to 1.1315
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SwingBGtrade PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
Stoped -10
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YaKa PRO
2 years ago
In any case:

fact: there is a breakout.

thought: all breakouts are not real. sep14 was fake, May11 was fake and more importantaly july07 was fake....

so the whole question to which there is no other answer than waiting is real or not..
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SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
snapshot
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YaKa PRO SwingBGtrade
2 years ago
2220 is not possible before July15. your scenario is tail risk. just a risk then... can't be base scenario so you know.
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SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
snapshot

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YaKa PRO
2 years ago
To all of you: please have a look at the VIX 1st and 2nd contract - this is not the behaviour of a trusted breakout...
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NgDihui YaKa
2 years ago
Hi, today's matket might extend higher due to Greece has requested for loan extension.
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SwingBGtrade PRO YaKa
2 years ago
snapshot
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look4edge YaKa
2 years ago
this chart tells me, there was no "real" breakup so far (could be still wave b), but it is very close, if break shold come, then vol needs to fall significantly and there will be huge price mark up (couple 10 pts.)

snapshot
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look4edge look4edge
2 years ago
and btw, according this chart spx is in status like in August 2006, still long way if break up will occur...
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Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Waiting patiently....
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AndrewMills
2 years ago
...very ominous indeed. I agree with this hypothesis. I believe S&P is OVERDUE for a correction, but the FED/Media/Govt complex keeps finding new ways to pump it up.... US QE, EU QE, JPY QE, pushing OIL price down (that was an engineered leverage move by the biggest players).... but at the end of the DAY, everyone knows but is in denial of the fact that this is NOT a robust recovery. If that were the case, the FED wouldn't mean nearly as much to the market as it means... the market HANGS on every next word from the FED. This isn't a free market, it's a 95% owned market by the biggest players, and they move these prices up and down to suit their needs. Anyone who thinks the people at the top would allow FREEDOM to exist in the free market is simply, ignorant. The fact is this: in the 1800's, we abolished slavery... but that didn't abolish those attitudes... it emboldened them! Now those same attitudes enslaved everybody through economics... and the invented fiat currency so they could slowly steal the rug out from under everyone and get the populations over a barrel ... hence, slavery. The EU/Greece fiasco is JUST the beginning of the backlash that's coming... soon Spain, Italy, and many others... including those in the US that have not spoken out yet as disaster has not struck home quite yet... but it's coming. That's my two cents in a nutshell.

Live by the FED, die by the FED. There is a reason the TRUE patriots tried to abolish central banks from the beginning.... how soon STUPIDITY of the education system doesn't teach ethics, principals... it teaches how to be an automaton... F.A. Hayek simply said it best, to paraphrase, "the education system is designed to develop people that will serve the needs of the government."

The next big show to drop will be the Auto loans... just like in 2007 when we gave houses away at ZERO DOWN!!! BUY BUY BUY... we are doing the same with autos... 84 month, 96 month loans... these people will be giving up their cars left and right when the doody hits the fan.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO AndrewMills
2 years ago
you said it all...

a lot of great news in the last 6 months and.... market is flat at the top.....
+1 Reply
CosmicDust
2 years ago
My two cents. Please see chart. Secondary indicators (RSI and MACD) are not looking good, but that does not mean market cannot keep going up (we all know divergence). The rising wedge exhausting point is $250. The market can go up 20% from this point on, or can go down 20%. Judging by the direction of 10 month moving average, the main trend is intact and is up. So I would suggest keep long the market as long as price is still above 10 month MA and above the main trend line. Only to short the market when the 10 month MA rolls over and price is under it and under the main trend line.

snapshot
+2 Reply
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