$SPX: No Signs of Collapse

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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While we all use two and four hour data to draw trend lines an/or draw patterns, I firmly believe the market is driven by longer time frames.

In looking at daily prices with the ribbon of moving averages, there is no sign of an imminent collapse as we saw last summer and last winter.

We need to see at least two major cycles or waves in which a lower high and a lower low is made with the ribbons bound together and pointing down.

And in past cases, the market has been kind enough to retest a high with the averages are moving down. That is the time to make the big short as distinguished from a trade.

You might miss 15 to 30 points, but on a big move down who cares.

Short term I am bullish but longer term am a bear.
I know this is very hard to believe based on the seven year history of range trading. (Honestly, I have problems believing this too). But the next direction for the SPX is probably up. This is based on filled and partially filled supply and demand zone (think point and figure charts). If you like, I can draw up a supply and demand zone chart - it will take about one hour. In short, the last 100% filled demand zone was 2076-2025. The last supply zone was 2120-2098. The market wants to be between supply and demand. But the fact that the ceiling (supply) is only 25% filled, means the SPX can only go up, based on current volume and assumptions. I know - hard to believe.
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