It it still whether we're heading into an equity bear
market, but there are some uncomfortable similarities between the current rolling over of the MACD
with how it behaved during the last two bear
markets. It is only one indicator, and there are many other factors at play. But, typically markets do not peak with a sudden drop in equity prices (see the equity drop in 2011). Rather, they turn much like the arc of a large ship with failed retests of an uptrend. The momentum gradually comes out of the uptrend while prices continue to plough upward. That divergence has been occurring on the monthly chart for the past year. If we do get a downturn, given where the momentum indicators are in their cycle, there is still considerable downside ahead of us. 1600 on the S&P 500
would be the first target.