$SPX: Musings on the Market

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
155 4 3
$SPX             appears to be trading in two upward sloping channels: an older more moderate channel and a very aggressive channel starting after the market tagged 2025 and completed its 3% correction from 2111.

Given the presence of these channels, shorts should only be taken when the channels are violated as shown in the shaded area. I have violated this rule but only when I have seen persistent             weakness.

Today’s close of 2105.25 is the highest $SPX             close since the close at 2111 in late April which is not immediately apparent as the folks at Trading View use futures prices to calculate the estimated value of $SPX             .

I make this point only to emphasize that no double top has been made, though it’s possible we will see one at 2111 but this is far from certain. Based upon a quick look at weekly closing prices, other levels of interest include 2116 and 2126.
Both have offered resistance in the past

And because 2025 was a calculated daily resistance level , I have looked at daily, weekly and monthly resistance levels from different sources and found clusters around 2110 and 2126. One would support a double top a 2111 while the other would support the upper end of my price studies.

Today’s price action reflects the prevailing “risk on” sentiment characterizing the market which was rather blasé about OPEC’s decision not to cap oil             production, putting firming oil             prices at risk. With small caps and high beta stocks outperforming the broader averages, it’s risk on.

Of course all of my bullish sentiment could be washed out if we have an unsettling jobs report or if the British decide to leave the EU, just to mention two of the more obvious risks. And there are countless hazards with China, particularly those dealing with growth and debt.

Thanks for reading and if anyone else has ideas as to where $SPX             could max out, please share
Very interesting. Thank you. Jobs report was bad ($38K new jobs). Heard that hedge funds made very large bets (puts) on SPX - several million contracts. I wonder if this second top is just a "short trap" on the hedge funds. Many hedge funds doubled their short bet from last year. Perhaps, their bets were too aggressive on the short side.
$SPX looks like a new high . Energy companies will benefit from higher oil prices and banks will benefit from rate hike .
zhaokedahuaidan zhaokedahuaidan
So in short term , SPX more likely to rise rather than fall .
I think so
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