FractalTrader

increasing evidence of range-bound consolidation

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
35 1 0
I haven't posted an intraday chart in some time. There's lots of news lately moving markets, so I think it's time to take a look.

The pseudo-triple bottom here was the first clue that a triangle could be forming. After all, there really is no such thing as a true triple bottom, it's always some sort of triangle. I started to track this formation last night after the market failed for the 2nd time to make a new low.

My confidence on this pattern increases with every new reversal. Should the current bullish action fail to exceed 2086 again, and reverse back lower overnight or tomorrow, the odds of a symmetrical triangle pattern go up dramatically to at least 80% odds.

Having said all that, how I've chosen to draw the pattern is not the only way it can play out...there are many ways. For example, this could be a complex correction with a triangle wave B, or circle wave d can subdivide into its own triangle. The point is not to forecast every wiggle, but to recognize the consolidation, and wait until it starts to contract further. At that point, playing a breakout is just a matter of placing a horizontal line for entry and a stop.

Some traders can thrive in this chop, but for many it's dangerous and better to wait for the trend to resume, or play a clear breakout. I can't stress enough to know your own strengths.

I'll try and revisit this post if this pattern does indeed mature, good luck.

Friday's trading was far more bullish than I anticipated, but I'm still not ready to give up on the triangle just yet. A move past 2086 would have confirmed the triangle consolidation pattern was no longer valid. We rallied throughout the day, but reached a high of only 2082, and the last 2 bars show a close under the upper trendline. I'm inclined to stay with this pattern, as we go into next week, mostly because I don't see a good alternate yet.
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