SPX - False Breakout since 2011

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
342 12 6

It is rather common.

It can be a false start or the last push before a correction takes place.

Again, touching the red line again seems too perfect in May > That increases the probability of a false breakout

SPX             about to achieve its highest close
Nasdaq composite             is about to beat its highest close ever.
BTW - I think we will hit above 2200 this year - BUT not before a correction to ~1960 first.

As per my style: i am consistent and only speak about potential moves of 4% or more.

If you want a guy that tells you where are the next 20pts and changes his mind every 3 hours, I suggest you go follow someone else.
+2 Reply
Guys, nice to hear your thoughts.
just note: SPX did not make progress since nov14 (the max we did yesterday was just 2% above)
I had a few move of 4/5% correct since that.
It will happen again here.
My call last week was very correct on dax and neutral on sp500 (1% around on both side).

Tops have inertia and all correction windows do not lead to a massive correction.

BUT TRUST ME: risk reward is crap, we are very close to a 4% correction and close to 10% one overall... all this without climbing more than 2% from here.

I really do not care about 10pts here or there (whether right or wrong)... look at it from a bigger picture please... I could be wrong by 1pt every day for 20d... this is meaningless to me.

Again, trust me on this: longs are dangerous at these levels.
I trust my plan, which for this instance has similar directional bias as yours. So I trust you mate. :)
Regardless of my trust, the market will do what it wants to do.
Anyway, chill mate.
YaKa Casey_Yeo
:) no pb. Just saying...
Did not close above 2015 today. So I added a trade expecting a down day for Friday. Emotions are in check at the moment :)
Cpt_Picard reluctantplumber
It's all about greece tomorrow, with dax already some sort of support the risk is to the upside imo.
Only risky if you are in deep and not playing both sides. YaKa will be correct at some point. He made an excellent call last week, but the market failed to follow through. If you listen to all of the wall street whispering there will be a very swift correction when it comes. It is very prudent to keep some protection on at this point.
Cpt_Picard reluctantplumber
Agree some protection is ok at this point if one can't sleep well. As for yaka's point is wasn't anything excellent at all about a one day dip. He post a couple correction graphs ever day if you haven't noticed...
Yes I have chided him for the same, but I very much appreciate his insight and effort no matter the position he is taking. That goes for all who post here and anywhere else that people are trying to help each other. It is still up to the individual to digest the information and make the final call.
Casey_Yeo Cpt_Picard
He seems trying to convince himself of his bias with the multiple posts of potential corrections. I do hope he makes the right call this time but not expecting much when trading against the monstrous prevailing uptrend.
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