FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
190 5 3
The prices which have been flagged are pretty self explanatory with the exception of 2212 which is a calculated pivot.

At some point there will be an opportunity to short the market but I would not simply short a price; I would wait for red and for short term EMA's to rollover.

Historically, the 38th, 39th and 40th week of the year have been the worst weeks for the market. In the case of 2016, this would be the period between September 19th through October 9th.

We may have to wait a bit unless there is a catalyst that spooks the market.
tradeBob1
3 months ago
catalyst may be the fed rate change in September. I'm expecting "official" 0.5% between September and December this year. The effective funds rate is 0.4%. We still have some deflation in some sectors and regions.
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Quantum_Maryland_Capital tradeBob1
3 months ago
That would certainly be a catalyst but the price of fed funds futures suggest a 12% probability of a hike in September according to CME; December is a possibility. Here is a link to their "cool tool" : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
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ChartArt Quantum_Maryland_Capital
3 months ago
I agree with tradeBob1 that the FED is now the main risk factor. So this is the time area to be on alert:

- Will Yellen surprise us at Jackson Hole?
http://www.bankrate.com/financing/economics/will-yellen-surprise-us-at-jackson-hole/

"The topic of the Aug. 25-27 conference is "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future" -- a stuffy topic even for an economist. Make no mistake, the speech by the Fed chair is the highlight of the event. For context, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes come out Aug. 17 -- the week before the conference, and the FOMC's next meeting to decide on interest rates will be Sept. 20-21, almost a month after the Jackson Hole summit."
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ChartArt ChartArt
3 months ago
"Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen returns to the most-watched economic confab of the year -- the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming -- after missing last year's meeting, and all ears will be listening for any hint of changes in monetary policy for the rest of the year."

So the volatility risk / opportunity starts before the Sept. 20-21 event already shortly after Aug. 25-27, 2016, when she might hint to the market what kind of decision they might have for September.
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Quantum_Maryland_Capital ChartArt
3 months ago
In no way am I dismissing the possibility of a Fed decision to hike rates in September but I believe the odds to be low. We will get July meeting minutes tomorrow, which should offer some insight, but Jackson Hole is a month before the September Fed decision, making it unlikely she will telegraph a major move a month in advance. From the link: Ryan Sweet, director of real time economics with Moody's Analytics, says he doubts Yellen will tip the Fed's hand on interest rates."There is roughly a month between the conference and the FOMC meeting, which is an eternity for the Fed, as a lot can happen," Sweet says. Further, from what I have read there is growing acceptance among Fed officials of the secular stagnation thesis first proposed by Larry Summers which, in my mind, would make a rate hike less likely. And John Williams of the SF Fed has been arguing that the inflation threshold should be raised to 3% from 2% to give the Fed more room to maneuver in the event of a turn to the downside. Meanwhile the $ has been falling, lining up with CME probabilities. So, I think we must carefully monitor the Fed while believing rate hikes are not imminent. Personal opinion. But I thank you and Bob for your thoughts, making for an interesting conversation. Meanwhile, we see that the market is allergic to 2194; unfortunately I only shorted a handful of contracts few of which are active.



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