YaKa

SP500 - Best Case - Base Case and Worst Case

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
815 9 17
Note the best, base and worst case may occur in sequence.

My base case is that 1960 is going to be hit.

Before this happens, SPX             may reach 2170 between the 19th of June and the 10th of July.

Once 1960 is reached there are 3 scenarios:
A) Correction is finished and SP500             resumes up.
B) SPX             goes deeper to 1900 before a sharp rebound into november 15.
C) SPX             rebounds to 2080 and then falls very abruptly (2011 scenario).
I like this alot!!! Lines up with what I see on the astro chart.
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do not try to guess prices, trends continue when change of thought, time stands upside break .......
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YaKa PRO velascan
If you were sure about that you would not be here (................)
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snapshot

Only Matter of when !! It consolidates for nearly 9-10 months at tops --- on last 2 occasions it remained at that level for over a year and actual price break came nearly after 1 year !! So fingers crossed could third time be lucky as well !! Will spx500 remain in this range of 2100 till year end and breaks support in early next year !! Waiting for SPX500 to break this trendline !!
+2 Reply
At least there was some volatilily at past major. But this market is just stuck in place - very hard to make money if you're a swing trader :(
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JohnKeverich JohnKeverich
*past major tops.
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snapshot


maybe 2115 was it = 2.618 ext from 2009 low, notice 1.618 ext at significant 1561 level
bullish scenario, W4 correction only 1880, then W5
bearish scenario wave X over, first target weekly ema200 in 1745 area
+1 Reply
YaKa, very good scenario set. On the worse case, how realistic is that? It implies a decline to the autumn 2013 levels when Bernanke uttered "No Taper". Clearly, without QE, I would have assumed this as realistic, but with QE as an available policy tool, don't you think, anything below 1820 may not be realistic?
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Realistic it is - that is for sure.
it is a question of probability.
best case 2180 with 20% chance to reach 2250
Base case 1960 - that is for me a 70% proability scenario.
Once 1960 is reached, you have 30% chance to reach 1900 and 15% chance to reach 1700.
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