I have been short for a few weeks now and some mornings I get paranoid that this resilience will eventually give rise to another leg up.
From my previous post, the extract is that it is not uncommon to have 5 weeks resilience on important tops.
From this chart, I get that the area is getting restricted (capped and floored) and this is why nothing is happening.
Now: all together the likelihood of a move down is great than the likelihood of "more of the same".
Once 2040 gets cleared, it is a techical event that may induce another technical event below 2000 after what SP500 may target 1940/1880.
I initially thought that the correction would end mid April15 but this chart tells me that since the correction took longer to roll, it may actually last 3/4 weeks from the point of break (2040) and could last until mid May.
The correction we are expecting is similar to Mar12 or Jul07.
Once launched, a little excess to 1880 to take tight stops out can't be ruled out.
1880/1940 could be a great buy leading to a new All Time High (final).
HERE - ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA IS A SHORT TO BELOW 2000 - A LAST PAIN MOVE TO 2130 CAN'T BE RULED OUT
But the idea is there. This year will be slightly different than 07 or 11 top but it will be similar than both and I think we are about to mark an important lasting top for at least 1 year.
On SP500 this top could be between 2120 and 2230 - This seems large (i am taking no risk) but we are dealing with a market that went up 6years and climbed 215%... so a 5% band is ok precision.