YaKa

SP500 - Time Under Pressure

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
1130 12 9
Time under pressure is the most difficult thing to comprehend while trading.

I have been short for a few weeks now and some mornings I get paranoid that this resilience will eventually give rise to another leg up.

From my previous post, the extract is that it is not uncommon to have 5 weeks resilience on important tops.

From this chart, I get that the area is getting restricted (capped and floored) and this is why nothing is happening.

Now: all together the likelihood of a move down is great than the likelihood of "more of the same".

Once 2040 gets cleared, it is a techical event that may induce another technical event below 2000 after what SP500             may target 1940/1880.

I initially thought that the correction would end mid April15 but this chart tells me that since the correction took longer to roll, it may actually last 3/4 weeks from the point of break (2040) and could last until mid May.

The correction we are expecting is similar to Mar12 or Jul07.

Once launched, a little excess to 1880 to take tight stops out can't be ruled out.

1880/1940 could be a great buy leading to a new All Time High (final).

HERE - ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA IS A SHORT TO BELOW 2000 - A LAST PAIN MOVE TO 2130 CAN'T BE RULED OUT
pcmourao
2 years ago
Nice... I made the same analysis just not based on this wedge... just an analysis that goes back to beginning of 2015
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elp
2 years ago
Has a similar profile to 2011 too.
snapshot
May 2015 has a fib time zone relationship with 2007 & 2000 tops. It's just an observation atm.
snapshot
My thought, low coming this month if not all ready in, chop around to test all time highs in May but unable to take them out. correction into summer 2015.
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elp elp
2 years ago
snapshot
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
I think we all agree a correction is coming - it is more a question of path and exact timing... I sill see the market able to do new tops in oct15.
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elp YaKa
2 years ago
I agree with your thought process. If W5 is similar in time with W1(13 months) as I have counted it. W5 from its bottom could top out mid to end of year 2016, which is at the end of President Obama's Presidency.
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
Yes - My large degree count is different than yours (and matches my fundamental appriciation) but it does not matter because we agree on minor counts. I think we get a final top before year end (max feb16)
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elp YaKa
2 years ago
That would fit with yr 2000. Topped in March of yr 2000, retest highs in Aug & Sept yr 2000 without making new highs.
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
Yes - this time, it could make new highs (which is irrelevant). what matters most is the time it takes and the number of oscillations. Overshooting (new tops) or undershooting (lower tops) is really a matter of local news flow dynamics and does not mean a lot at the end and often will depend on local psychology... if there are a lot of shorts: likely to overshoot...etc..
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
how come the timing was not 2014? every 7 years?
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elp YaKa
2 years ago
snapshot
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
ok - perfect - My mistake.
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
It is really great to have a time target like this. Now in all these things, It rarely match the exact time frame or the exact emotional sequence (comparing to 2011).
But the idea is there. This year will be slightly different than 07 or 11 top but it will be similar than both and I think we are about to mark an important lasting top for at least 1 year.

On SP500 this top could be between 2120 and 2230 - This seems large (i am taking no risk) but we are dealing with a market that went up 6years and climbed 215%... so a 5% band is ok precision.
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