SP500 - Time Under Pressure

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
1130 12 9
Time under pressure is the most difficult thing to comprehend while trading.

I have been short for a few weeks now and some mornings I get paranoid that this resilience will eventually give rise to another leg up.

From my previous post, the extract is that it is not uncommon to have 5 weeks resilience on important tops.

From this chart, I get that the area is getting restricted (capped and floored) and this is why nothing is happening.

Now: all together the likelihood of a move down is great than the likelihood of "more of the same".

Once 2040 gets cleared, it is a techical event that may induce another technical event below 2000 after what SP500             may target 1940/1880.

I initially thought that the correction would end mid April15 but this chart tells me that since the correction took longer to roll, it may actually last 3/4 weeks from the point of break (2040) and could last until mid May.

The correction we are expecting is similar to Mar12 or Jul07.

Once launched, a little excess to 1880 to take tight stops out can't be ruled out.

1880/1940 could be a great buy leading to a new All Time High (final).

Has a similar profile to 2011 too. May 2015 has a fib time zone relationship with 2007 & 2000 tops. It's just an observation atm. My thought, low coming this month if not all ready in, chop around to test all time highs in May but unable to take them out. correction into summer 2015.
elp elp
I think we all agree a correction is coming - it is more a question of path and exact timing... I sill see the market able to do new tops in oct15.
+1 Reply
elp YaKa
I agree with your thought process. If W5 is similar in time with W1(13 months) as I have counted it. W5 from its bottom could top out mid to end of year 2016, which is at the end of President Obama's Presidency.
Yes - My large degree count is different than yours (and matches my fundamental appriciation) but it does not matter because we agree on minor counts. I think we get a final top before year end (max feb16)
+1 Reply
elp YaKa
That would fit with yr 2000. Topped in March of yr 2000, retest highs in Aug & Sept yr 2000 without making new highs.
+1 Reply
Yes - this time, it could make new highs (which is irrelevant). what matters most is the time it takes and the number of oscillations. Overshooting (new tops) or undershooting (lower tops) is really a matter of local news flow dynamics and does not mean a lot at the end and often will depend on local psychology... if there are a lot of shorts: likely to overshoot...etc..
+1 Reply
how come the timing was not 2014? every 7 years?
elp YaKa
ok - perfect - My mistake.
+1 Reply
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