YaKa
Short

SP500 - PERFECT OPTION STRATEGY

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
819 8 17
Spot ref: 2070 (tomorrow/Monday)

Time horizon: 20 March 2015:
- SP500             can’t go higher than 2140
- 2080 is likely to retain.
- SP500             could break decisively below 1980

Great option strategy that fits the market set up:
Expiry 20Mar15
Buy Put 2000 Premium 23
Sell Put 1930 Premium 13
Sell Call 2140 Premium 6
Net premium 4

Best case: Maximum gain 70, could multiply premium by 12.
Worst case: Spot dies on liability strike, I d love to short 100% 2140 which would be the case here if exercised.

Premium invested 25bp.
that was a HUGE claim my friend, cant go higher than 2140 :-)
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
You mis read. it should read: can't go higher than 2140 before the 20march 2015... I am betting big this is not happening.
+3 Reply
Great work Yacine, thank you for sharing. Would you elaborate a bit why it "can't go higher than 2140 before Mar 20", one key assessment in your strategy? I understand it's a strong resistance with Fib clusters however market can do anything it wants, and with current volatility it'd easily move 100+ points in a few days (& 200+ by March) either direction, why no room to go up? I'm sure at least the centre bankers, Janet Yellen & Mario Draghi alike would fully agree with me, haha
Reply
YaKa PRO ni.jin.90
Simple: the log speed line taking the tops of 2010, 2011, 2014 is climbing at a compounded rate of 12% per year (will be at 10,000 in 2028..).

I heavily bet it will remain unbroken overall, is at 2140 in Mar15 and climbs 1% per month.

Voila
Reply
Thanks Voila for the response... now it makes more sense to me. I also like the detailed scenarios you outlined, here is another likely path I see in near term (not calling the top, new ATH should follow after the summer correction):
snapshot

Nikki
Reply
YaKa PRO ni.jin.90
I must say this scenario is the most reasonnable bulllish one... But i dont think so...
Anyway, dice are thrown, i bought the put spread 2000/1930 march.... Inchallah
Reply
thanks... I shorted as well, the pullback will be the tell, my scenario is invalidated if breaking down 1925 (wave 2 should stay above).
Reply
Again, speed line is amazing. I like the option strategy as well.
+1 Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
Malaysia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Priority Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out