Typically, elongated rising wedges
( like the one seen in the SPX500
right now), tend to resolve to the downside. Also, over the past few weeks, bulls have failed to reach the top end of this wedge
. And, in the past 48 hours, the SPX500
is threatening to leave two major false - break patterns and a dragonfly doji
pattern. These are characteristics of a either a significant top or potential distribution pattern. Moreover , anecdotal evidence is pointing to investor complacency which too is often associated with key peaks of price action. With other major equity indices starting to show kinks in the armor, look for bears to aggressively test the lower bounds of the wedge
. A potential breakout would likely retrace a quarter of the entire 2 year advance.