- Overall SP500 did not move since November 2014. I think it is maintained here thx to bullishness in Europe/Japan.
- Swings tend to last 6 months and climb 16.5% (we had 6 of these in the last 3 years).
- This is exactly what we have since oct14
- When it was stronger, it managed to climb more within the first 6 months.
- When it lasted longer, it did not climb more than 16%.
- DAX did a new top (excess?) while SP500 is still contained (divergence?)…
- Absurd Reasoning: climbing to 2150 would be too perfect – so it will probably not happen.
The conclusion did not change: SHORT. As time passes the likelihood of an imminent move down increases.
Risk Reward: +3% / -10%